REGIONAL weather forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions may influence the coming monsoons. International meteorological forums anticipate excessive heat spells and below-normal rainfall, especially in Pakistan’s plains. However, this forecast does not rule out the possibility of occasional cloudbursts that generate torrential spates in the highlands and urban flooding in the plains. Similarly, excessive heat can melt snow at a faster pace in the mountains, which will swell the rivers. The Met Office has issued warnings of glacial lake outburst floods during heatwaves.

The lessons of the catastrophic floods of 2022 and 2025 need to be recalled. Encroachments on riverbeds and the blockage of natural waterways intensified those floods. Dried-up streams and stretches of riverbeds, as well as seasonal nullahs, frequently mistaken for empty land, are often occupied by illegal housing societies, crops, roads and squatters. Floodplains are seized for large-scale cropping, and cordoned off by illegally erected embankments. Over time, makeshift shelters are built, forming haphazard settlements. In urban areas, clumsily located residential and commercial neighbourhoods encroach on rainwater streams, open nullahs and arterial drains. In mountainous areas, new houses and recreational facilities are built on the path of natural streams. These encroachments narrow waterways, and devastation ensues when the floods reclaim their natural paths after several years.

The population on these waterways continues to expand exponentially. Green patches on spatial maps are steadily being replaced with shades of brown. Land in the peripheries of the villages and towns is converted from green cover to real estate. A study conducted by Syed Khurram Shahzad of Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, revealed that between 1980 and 2020, some 12,450 square kilometres, or 18.7 per cent, of Pakistan’s natural floodplains were lost to agricultural and urban land use. The percentage had climbed from 1.2pc in the 1980s to 7.5pc in the 2010s. According to the research, Punjab accounted for the largest share (45pc) of total encroachment. The Ravi and Chenab river basins were marked as intensively encroached areas. The peri-urban areas of Lahore and Faisalabad saw a 320pc expansion in the urbanisation of floodplains. Sindh accounted for 32pc of the encroachment, mostly as agricultural and informal settlements. The research estimated that 6.2 million people lived directly on encroached floodplains, with another 12.8m settled slightly further but within the zones inundated during floods.

Last year, Punjab experienced calamitous transboundary floods. Encroachments on the Ravi and Chenab rivers and urban nullahs aggravated the intensity of the deluge, exposing the governance mess of decades. The Ravi overflowed its banks, flooding thoughtlessly built elite housing societies on the outskirts of Lahore. Urban drainage in Sialkot, Narowal, Gujranwala and several other cities was affected by encroachments. High-level officials, including the prime minister, attributed much of the devastation caused by the floods in Sialkot to encroachments on natural water channels. The PM announced a national campaign against haphazard construction around rivers, watercourses and streams. The authorities often issue resolute statements when disasters wreak havoc, but their words seldom see action as floods subside.

The lessons of 2022 and 2025 must be recalled.

Prior to last year’s floods, a Senate standing committee was informed that encroachments along Punjab’s rivers and waterways had increased, with a staggering 800 new cases reported as of February 2025. A re­­­-

presentative of the Federal Flood Com­mission failed to su­­b­­stantiate his claim that all encroachm­ents had been remo­ved before August 2024. Suparco data indicated that no major encroachments had been removed after August 2024.

In November 2025, the committee vented its frustration over the lack of coordination among the water resources ministry, line agencies and the provincial governments regarding the removal of encroachments along riverbanks and nullahs. The committee was told that 897 encroachments had still not been cleared. Provincial data presented to the committee showed that Punjab had removed 1,790 out of 2,687 encroachments, Sindh had removed six out of 164, and KP had removed 126 out of 377. No encroachments were removed in Balochistan. The authorities adopt a lax attitude as the removal of encroachments has political implications. So-called actions are announced only for public consumption.

There’s virtually no time left before the next monsoons commence. The authorities should clear the waterways immediately before a deluge sweeps away homes, roads, bridges, dykes and standing crops.

The writer is senior adviser on water governance at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

naseer_memon@sdpi.org

Published in Dawn, July 2nd, 2026