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DONALD Trump had declared roughly 40 times that a deal with Iran was imminent before a MoU materialised on the US president’s 80th birthday. Arrangements had already been made, though, for another huge gift. Thus it was that the prospect of peace was counterbalanced by an orgy of violence on the South Lawn of the White House.
Shortly after relishing the sweat-and-blood spectacle of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), the newly minted octogenarian boarded Air Force One for a flight to France — albeit for a G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains rather than extended birthday celebrations in Paris. The spa town on the Swiss border is barely 45 kilometres away from Geneva, where the Iranian-US MoU is expected to be signed on Friday, and it’s not inconceivable that Trump could hop across to do the honours instead of leaving it to his deputy.
Perhaps the bigger question is whether the tentative deal will survive until the day after tomorrow, given the Netanyahu regime’s determination to derail it by pursuing its aggression against Lebanon. Neither side has thus far publicised the details of the two-page MoU, but according to Pakistani and Iranian officials, the proposed cessation of hostilities extends to Lebanon. Israel’s declared intention of continuing to occupy the south of the country might deter Tehran from signing on the dotted line.
Trump has crowed about two aspects of the deal — both of which were already in place before he embarked on his biggest foreign misadventure thus far by launching an unprovoked military assault on Iran, in collaboration with Israel, on Feb 28. Iran has agreed, he says, to abandon its ambitions for a nuclear weapon — which has been Tehran’s official position for decades. The toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, would merely be a reversion to the status quo ante — although Iran says transiting tankers would be charged a fee (technically not a toll).
Will the tentative deal survive until Friday?
It remains to be seen what other ambiguities reside in the MoU, but the overall sense is that of a significant strategic defeat for the US. It’s not only mission unaccomplished for every goal that Trump cited, but the entire region has been destabilised, with most Gulf potentates disabused of the notion that their extravagant largesse had secured their status as US protectorates. Even the UAE — exceptionally belligerent compared with its neighbours, and the Gulf state most closely allied with Israel — heeded the wake-up call by courting Iran’s IRGC and paying Tehran $3 billion, reportedly as part of a $20bn deal. No wonder the Emirates have lately been spared the wrath of Iran, which responded to American ceasefire violations by targeting US facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.
The instability will linger, though, with American forces remaining in place as Iran and the US navigate their way past the post-MoU obstacles, including Tehran’s right to uranium refinement below the weapons-grade threshold and, presumably, its support for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. In the latter instance, Iran would be justified in conditioning any concessions on the suspension of US sponsorship of the IDF — the deadliest terrorist organisation in West Asia.
What’s clear, meanwhile, is that despite the huge death toll in Iran and Lebanon — Gaza’s horrors are in a different category — the war Israel and the US launched just over 100 days ago fell substantially short of the rapid smackdown the perpetrators expected to deliver. No wonder Trump lapped up Sunday evening’s pre-arranged gladiatorial contests, with their clear-cut winners and losers. Real life is more complicated.
Trump’s fascination with blood sports stretches back to his relative youth. Last month the UK’s Channel 4 aired comedian Munya Chawawa’s documentary Wrestling With Trump, which reinforces the impression that his political playbook owes much to his early infatuation with the scripted power plays of organised violence arranged by World Wrestling Entertainment. Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon serves as Trump’s education secretary, even though her department no longer exists. In the past, Trump properties have hosted WWE and UFC tournaments, and both are now owned by TKO Group Holdings. Under the most brazenly corrupt US administration, the Watergate-era suggestion ‘follow the money’ remains good advice.
Sunday’s cage fights coincided with a very different event in New York — Rise Up, Sing Out: A Concert for the First Amendment. It’ll take more than a bunch of octogenarian Hollywood and rock stars to save American democracy, but it’s easy to empathise with Robert De Niro’s sentiments on the night: “I hate to say it, but loving our country is starting to sound like an abused spouse saying they love their abuser … I can’t love a country that’s led by a racist, misogynist, xenophobic tyrant.” Obviously, nobody sang Happy Birthday, Mr President.
Published in Dawn, June 17th, 2026
