SINGAPORE: Dry weather is disrupting crop planting across Asia, raising concerns about food supplies in the world’s most populous region, and an expected severe El Nino weather pattern could inflict more damage.

From India’s grain-producing northwestern plains to Australia’s eastern wheat belt, and from Thailand’s rice fields to Indonesia’s vast palm oil plantations, hot weather and below-normal rains are hurting crops and forcing farmers to reduce planting, farmers, analysts and traders said.

El Nino-driven dryness is a double blow for farmers already grappling with fertiliser and diesel shortages caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Wheat prices have risen about 20 per cent since the start of 2026, largely on concerns over drought in key US growing regions. Rice prices at major Southeast Asian export hubs have climbed around 15pc over the past month on rising production costs and fears of tighter supplies.

One of the strongest El Ninos on record is widely expected to develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hot-dry weather to Asia and excessive rains to the Americas, with global climate change making things worse.

“The El Nino impact globally starts with Southeast Asia, India, Australia, before it has wider implications downstream in North America and South America,” said Chris Hyde, a US-based meteorologist at satellite data and imagery firm SkyFi. Hyde said early signs of drought are already visible on the company’s high-resolution imagery platform, across parts of Asia.

Hot-dry weather hits farms

In India, the meteorological department last week further reduced its forecast for the four-month monsoon season, which delivers about 70pc of annual rains.

“With temperatures across most parts of the country remaining well above normal, conditions are currently unfavourable for the timely sowing of summer crops,” said one New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

“Planting is likely to be delayed due to the late onset of the monsoon, but greater concern lies in the possibility of below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells after its arrival.”

India mainly grows rice, soybeans, pulses, sugarcane and corn in the summer season. For Southeast Asian countries, dryness is hitting rice and palm oil yields in some areas.

“Everybody is worried (about drought), it’s risky,” said Nerawat Oramah, a 47-year-old farmer in central Thailand’s Chainat province.

“For my second harvest, I have to wait and see the situation. It’s a risk for every one (if there is not enough water), there will only be one harvest.”

Thailand and the Philippines plant their main rice crops in June-July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are now sowing their second-season crops.

Indonesia’s most populated Java island and some areas in northern Sumatra, south Kalimantan and Sulawesi have not experienced any rain for more than 10 days, according to the country’s meteorological agency, with medium to low rainfall expected in June.

Higher prices

Rice prices are edging up even though India, which accounts for 40pc of global exports, is sitting on ample supplies after years of near-record harvests.

Published in Dawn, June 5th, 2026