The US military blockade of Iran’s ports is likely to cut Tehran off from vital oil revenue, but the country can likely endure the pressure for months without a major economic crisis or lasting harm to its oil industry, possibly dimming US hopes of forcing a quicker end to the war, Anadolu reports citing NBC News.
The blockade has stopped dozens of Iranian tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has slowly reduced oil production because of the blockade and could run out of storage space within two months, potentially forcing some wells to shut down.
“They’re going to have to shut down about half of their production. They can keep producing because they can refine it domestically,” says Robin Mills of Qamar Energy consulting and the Centre on Global Energy Policy at New York’s Columbia University.
Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group says Iran has experience in reducing oil production after doing so twice in the past 15 years under US sanctions.
“I don’t think it’s going to do tremendous damage to their infrastructure,” Brew said. “They know how to do this. They’ve done it before.”
According to Brew, Iran has responded by cutting the amount of oil loaded onto tankers from about 11 million barrels per week to roughly 6-8 million.
