AS the Gulf conflict continues, the disruption in global fertiliser markets has again exposed the weaknesses of Pakistan’s farm input security. While domestic capacity has insulated Pakistan from the worst effects of the urea shock, the same cannot be said for diammonium phosphate, where reliance on imports leaves the farm economy vulnerable. Local production in the case of urea has helped farmers avoid reducing fertiliser use, which would have meant lower output and higher food prices. DAP is a different story. Pakistan produces only around 0.7m tonnes annually but needs more than 2m, a gap it fills almost entirely through imports from the Middle East. In normal conditions, this reliance is manageable, though pricey. In the current disruption, it is a critical fault line.

Unlike urea, where domestic stocks and production continuity provide a cushion, DAP imports are directly exposed to price volatility and logistical bottlenecks. Supply disruptions, shipping constraints and feedstock shortages are already tightening global availability. Prolonged disruption could sharply raise landed costs, limit availability during sowing periods and force farmers to either reduce application or switch to a suboptimal nutrient mix. The implications for agriculture are significant. DAP plays a crucial role in early-stage crop development, particularly for staple crops. Its under-application cannot be easily compensated by urea or other nutrients without compromising yields. In this sense, the DAP shortfall is not merely a supply issue; it is also a threat to output, farm incomes, price stability and, by extension, food security. At the minimum, uninterrupted gas supply to the existing DAP plant must be ensured. Beyond that, policymakers must revisit the broader incentive structure to encourage capacity expansion and gradually limit import dependence. As geopolitical uncertainties persist, the gap between resilience and vulnerability will increasingly be defined by what the country can produce at home and what it cannot.

Published in Dawn, March 25th, 2026