On the 23rd day of the US- Israeli war against Iran, the conflict entered its most dangerous phase yet as US President Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum imposed a hard deadline on an already grinding and multi-front war.

The demand that Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power infrastructure has compressed timelines and raised the risk of immediate escalation.

Tehran’s response was swift. It warned that any attack on its power, fuel or energy infrastructure would trigger strikes not only on US and Israeli-linked assets, but also on critical energy, IT and desalination facilities across the Gulf. This explicit warning, backed by proven Iranian capability to deliver on their warnings, sharply raised the stakes, particularly for Gulf states.

At the operational level, US and Israeli strikes have continued against Iranian coastal missile sites and access tunnels near Kharg and the Tunb islands. These actions look to be designed by the US and Israel to degrade Iran’s ability to control the Strait before the alliance commits to a full-scale ground operation. Yet Iran has retained the operational control of the Strait by keeping it selectively open, allowing limited passage for ‘friendly’ countries while restricting coalition-linked traffic. And simultaneously, Tehran has continued to load and export oil. This indicates that Iran is sustaining economic pressure without fully closing off its own options.

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