LAHORE: Pakistan produced 5.607 million bales during 2025-26 season, a marginal 1.5 per cent increase over last year but a staggering 45pc short of the official target, marking one of the largest production gaps in recent history.

According to data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), the country produced 5.607m bales against the 10.2m bales target set by the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA), which had allocated 5.553m bales for Punjab and 4.627m bales for Sindh and Balochistan combined.

However, Punjab produced only 2.693m bales, 51.5pc below its target, while Sindh and Balochistan produced 2.915m bales, 37pc short of their target. In a notable development, despite having a 17pc lower production target than Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan outperformed Punjab by approximately 7.6pc in actual output.

Textile mills purchased 5.188m bales from ginning factories during the year, while exporters bought 100,078 bales. Total remaining stocks with ginners, exporters, traders, and farmers may be around four lakh bales, of which only about 125,000 bales are believed to be quality cotton.

Due to the limited availability of quality cotton and anticipated global supply delays, domestic cotton prices are expected to firm up in the coming weeks. Reports suggest that Pakistani textile mills have already signed import agreements for more than four million bales. PCGA report also noted that 62,300 bales reached ginning factories in February alone, a sharp 348pc increase compared to February 2025, indicating that cotton arrivals are still continuing. Currently, 67 ginning factories remain operational in Punjab.

Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsanul Haq suggests that final production figures should have been released in early April to better reflect the ongoing arrivals. He points out that the FCA calculates production targets based on a bale weight of 170 kg, whereas actual ginning factory bale weights average around 160 kg. If recalculated on a 160kg basis, the national production target would rise to 10.837m bales, widening the shortfall to 5.23m bales, nearly 48pc below target.

Published in Dawn, March 4th, 2026