THE atmosphere in the Gulf is truly combustible, with a massive American military build-up around Iran signalling trouble ahead, unless there is a diplomatic breakthrough in the ongoing nuclear negotiations.

US President Donald Trump has been mixing optimism about the possible success of the talks with threats to launch fresh aggression against Iran. Mr Trump has said “bad things” would happen to Iran if it did not strike a deal within the next 10 to 15 days, while adding that he was still considering ‘limited’ military strikes.

He has also said that the option of regime change in the Islamic Republic remains on the table. It seems that the American leader — through his verbal threats and display of military muscle — is waging a psychological campaign against the Iranians. The problem with this approach is that a single miscalculation can lead to disastrous real-world consequences, and cause the whole region to erupt in flames.

On their part, the Iranians appear confident that an agreement can be reached. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said a draft deal is nearly ready, though he did observe that the US military posturing was “unnecessary and unhelpful”. Yet despite the minister’s belief that the parleys can succeed, Iran’s leadership has also said that an attack by America would lead to a regional war.

Iranian allies in the region — Hezbollah, the Houthis, militias in Iraq — have similarly said that this time, they will hit back if Iran is attacked.

Israel, meanwhile, is also reportedly drawing up war plans. In fact, it is Tel Aviv that is most interested in an attack on Iran. Israel has lobbied for nearly impossible conditions to be inserted in any deal with Iran — an end to Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missiles programmes, and cessation of support for Iran’s regional armed allies. Suffice to say, the Iranians are highly unlikely to agree to such terms, and any deal should focus on realistic goals regarding the nuclear file.

The ball is in Mr Trump’s court. With his huge build-up of forces around Iran, and frequent threats targeted at the Islamic Republic, the US president has created a very difficult situation for himself. Statesmanship would require him to back down from his threatening posture and give the Iranians genuine sanctions relief so that they can revive their battered economy, and come to terms with Tehran on a doable nuclear deal.

To think that any military action against Iran would be ‘limited’ is delusional, as in the heat of battle, matters can escalate very quickly.

Mr Trump must decide if he wants to stick to his campaign promises of ending ‘forever’ wars and putting ‘America first’, or if he wants to put ‘Israel first’ by launching a disastrous war against Iran.

Published in Dawn, February 22nd, 2026