ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s fertility transition began late, fell rapidly for a short period, and has shown no meaningful improvement since 2006. Birth rates remain high due to the country’s slow social and economic progress, particularly low levels of female education, high child mortality and limited income growth.

This is the central finding of a study titled Unlocking the Stall in Fertility Decline and Socio-Economic Development in Pakistan, launched by the Population Council with support from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).

The study reveals that cultural beliefs continue to promote larger families, leading to a weak preference for modern family planning methods even among younger generations.

According to a statement, at the launching ceremony, Population Council Country Director Dr Zeba Sathar said Pakistan remained one of the few countries in South Asia where fertility has stalled for nearly two decades, stabilising around 3.6 children per woman.

She said girls’ education, skills and empowerment were fundamental to transforming the economy, improving health outcomes and ensuring better family well-being. “Without progress on these fronts, fertility decline will remain slow, and development gains will continue to be undermined,” she added.

Setting the global and regional context, Dr John PM Bongaarts, former vice president of the Population Council, noted that while many countries have successfully reduced their population growth rates and achieved significant socio-economic gains, Pakistan’s stalled fertility places it on a trajectory of rapid population increase.

He stressed that “unless we act now to reduce unmet need for family planning and strengthen the delivery of reliable, voluntary FP services, Pakistan will continue to experience population pressures that will adversely affect its development prospects.”

During a panel discussion, UNFPA Country Representative Dr Luay Shabaneh emphasised that women in Pakistan increasingly aspire to have fewer children, but structural constraints, including inconsistent policies, service gaps and poor contraceptive availability, limit their choices. “Fertility is a reflection of people’s lived realities. Women are trying to have smaller families, but the system is not providing the opportunities or services they need. Pakistan must take family planning seriously and expand its service delivery, especially given the significant shortage of Lady Health Workers,” he said.

Dr Faisal Bari, Dean at LUMS, highlighted the deep inequalities shaping household decision-making, noting that fertility decline requires parallel improvements in education, economic opportunities and service provision. “Fertility choices cannot be separated from child mortality, access to services, women’s work opportunities and deep social inequalities,” he said.

The discussion reinforced that ending Pakistan’s fertility stall requires bold, coordinated investments across sectors.

The study recommended achieving key development thresholds by 2035, including halving child mortality (from 65 to 30 deaths per 1,000 births), doubling the proportion of females with secondary education to 40pc, halving poverty levels and reducing inequality through sustainable, inclusive economic growth.

Published in Dawn, December 12th, 2025