LAHORE: A Gallup Pakistan’s survey for Q4-2025 (October-December) reveals a decline in confidence since Q2-2025 but remains stronger than last year.

The findings show a ‘moderate’ decline across all three components - current business performance, future expectations and perceptions of the country’s direction of the index compared with Q2-2025.

Regarding economic management, 46 per cent of businesses rate the current PML-N government’s performance as better than the previous PTI administration, unchanged from Q2 and five points higher than a year ago.

The report titled “16th wave of its Business Confidence Index (BCI)” was released on Monday, capturing the views of 571 statistically chosen businesses across Pakistan for Q4-2025 (Oct-Dec). The survey measures the aforementioned components (current business performance, future expectations and perceptions of the country’s direction), offering a timely and broad-based pulse of Pakistan’s business climate.

Views on country’s direction worsen from –2pc to –8pc 10-point drop in future business expectations

Opinion on current business conditions fell from +20pc to +8pc, indicating fewer businesses now describe their situation as good or very good. The perceptions on future business expectations declined from +22pc to +12pc, a 10-point drop in optimise, while views on the direction of the country worsened from –2pc to –8pc, reflecting a slightly more pessimistic outlook.

Despite this softening, all three scores remain better than Q4-2024 as well as most of 2022–2023, suggesting an improvement in medium-term business sentiment. Inflation continues to be the most cited problem, with 33pc of businesses wanting the government to prioritise price stability.

After a consistent decline in inflation rate, recent few months have seen an upward movement across food as well as energy markets in Pakistan.

“42pc of businesses reported power outages on the day of the survey, similar to last year. Despite massive investment in electricity infrastructure, consistent supply remains a major challenge crippling the economy,” the report states.

“Business Confidence has slid slightly, but the message from businesses is clear: economic stabilisation is not enough, without a stronger growth rate, sentiment will continue to move in short bursts rather than in a steady upward path,” Bilal Gilani, executive director of the Gallup Pakistan comments.

“The stability helped, but growth now has to take the lead. The PML-N-led government, however, continues to be entrusted with confidence by the wider business community to bring about relief and reforms,” he said.

Published in Dawn, November 18th, 2025