• Official estimates classify only 39pc of population as urban
• Discrepancy arises from reliance on administrative boundaries over population density, settlement patterns

ISLAMABAD: An analysis of a World Bank policy research working paper reveals that Pakistan’s true level of urbanisation is close to 88 per cent, based on satellite imagery and the Degree of Urbanisation methodology.

According to the working paper titled “When Does a Village Become a Town?: Revisiting Pakistan’s Urbanisation Using Satellite Data”, the substantial discrepancy arises from Pakistan’s reliance on administrative boundaries that fail to reflect actual population density or settlement patterns.

The analysis finds that Pakistan’s urban population is nearly twice the size reported in official statistics, as the administrative definition accounts only for the largest cities. Based on the DoU classification, 88pc of the population lives in an area with urban characteristics – 46pc in high-density cities and about 42pc in moderately dense urban centres.

These figures contrast sharply with the 39pc urban population reported in official data, revealing a major gap between politically defined and technically measured classifications.

The findings indicate that secondary cities and peri-urban areas — rather than megacities — are the primary drivers of recent urban expansion and are systematically overlooked in official classifications. This discrepancy between functional and administrative classifications has significant fiscal and planning implications.

Misclassified areas reduce property tax revenues and undermine the planning and delivery of essential public services. Moreover, misclassification distorts spatial socioeconomic indicators, masking the true extent of urban-rural disparities and complicating the design of effective, evidence-based public policy, according to the research paper produced by the World Bank’s Office of the Poverty and Equity Global Department.

The last time Pakistan’s official classification of urban areas reflected on-the-ground realities was in 1972. Before then, urban classification was based on objective indicators such as population count, infrastructure, and public service provision. However, after 1972, the responsibility shifted to provincial and municipal committees, which have no formal obligation to consider population concentration or objective metrics when defining urban areas – nor are they required to periodically revise urban boundaries.

The study shows that while official statistics suggest 39pc of Pakistan’s population is urban, this figure rises to 88pc when population density and concentration are considered. The official definition captures only the largest urban centres and fails to recognise the urban character of growing peri-urban areas that now host nearly half the population.

Additionally, the paper discussed how mirroring the urban expansion of Pakistan with the development of “megacities” overlooks the significant urbanisation occurring in growing peri-urban areas. While the expansion of cities like Lahore and Karachi is a notable indicator of the country’s increasing urbanisation, a large part of the urban population growth occurs in many intermediate and small urban centres.

The study uses the Degree of Urbanisation method, which relies on satellite data to assess population density, providing a more accurate and globally comparable view of urbanisation beyond administrative boundaries.

Across all provinces, the divergence between the official urban classification and the DoU persists, with official statistics consistently

Official data underrepresents urbanisation, with Islamabad showing only 47pc urban population compared to 90pc under the DoU, while figures in Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh are more closely aligned.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the DoU estimates the urban population at nearly three times the official 15pc, while Islamabad is mostly dense urban, and other provinces show mixed suburban and peri-urban growth. The report concludes that Pakistan’s urban landscape has transformed dramatically over the past two decades. Since the early 2000s, a growing share of the rural population has shifted away from agriculture, transforming previously rural settlements into new and vibrant urban centres.

Published in Dawn, November 5th, 2025