• PMD conducts simulation exercise for magnitude-9 earthquake
• Communication tools, public alert mechanisms and regional coordination among coastal countries assessed, says chief meteorologist
• PDMA not informed about drill, claims official

KARACHI: The absence of key stakeholders, including the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), has raised questions over the efficacy of a mock exercise conducted by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Wednesday to test and improve early warning and response systems for a potential 9-magnitude tsunami.

Sources said it was the fourth consecutive year in Sindh that the mock drill was carried out without engaging vulnerable coastal communities and remained confined to the PMD’s Karachi office, defeating its key purpose of preparedness.

The sources pointed unlike Pakistan, such mock drills the world over saw active participation of all stakeholders, including disaster management bodies, civil defence, medical relief organisations, educational institutions and the general public.

“A few years back, the PMD carried out tsunami mock drills in the coastal villages of Sindh, actively engaging local communities and relief bodies, and established siren systems for early warning under a UNDP-funded project. The project is over and there is no local budget provision for these drills,” an official told Dawn.

He further stated that though the PMD carried out the drills in the field under the project, disaster management was not their job.

“Disaster preparedness requires active participation of all departments and institutions. Unfortunately, this isn’t happening in our country mainly because we don’t consider tsunami a real threat,” he said, adding the PMD’s job was limited to release early warning to all concerned bodies.

Explaining the reasons for absence at the event as well as the department’s inactive role during the 50-plus tremors reported in the city over a few months back, PDMA Director Operations Shayan Shah said that the department did not get any letter (seeking the department’s participation) from the PMD for the Oct 15 drill.

“We were not informed about the exercise. However, the concerns over our [inactive] role are valid to an extent. There are financial constraints and then we need to have dedicated teams at the district level,” he said.

However, PMD officials denied PDMA’s claim, stating that all agencies concerned were informed about the mock exercise.

According to Chief Meteorologist Ameer Hyder Laghari, Makran subduction zone in the Arabian Sea is Pakistan’s closet tsunami source. In 1945, it generated a devastating tsunamigenic earthquake, killing over 4,000 people along Pakistan’s coast and neighbouring countries like Iran, India and Oman.

“Geological studies suggest potential for large earthquakes and tsunamis. Coastal areas like Gwadar, Pasni, Ormara, Karachi, Chahabar (Iran) and Muscat (Oman) are highly vulnerable. Near-field tsunamis arrive in 15 to 30 minutes, making rapid decision making critical to minimize human loss,” he said, adding that 9-magnitude earthquake was the worst case scenario to evaluate national emergency readiness.

About Wednesday’s exercise, he said it was meant to test Pakistan’s early warning in the event of an undersea earthquake. “We assessed communication tools, public alert mechanisms, and regional coordination among coastal countries.”

Highlighting the importance of disaster preparedness, he said: “A 9-magnitude tsunami killed 200,000 people in Indonesia (in 2004) and 20,000 in Japan in 2011. It shows how disaster preparedness could help minimise loss of life. Second, the key message is to engage educational institutions including schools in preparedness,” Mr Laghari said, adding that his one-year study in Muzaffarabad showed that 90pc of the 86,000 people killed in 2005 earthquake were students.

Published in Dawn, October 16th, 2025