Pakistan’s mounting water crisis goes beyond environmental concerns — it is a stark reflection of deep-rooted institutional, climatic, and political failures that resonate across the Global South. Against the backdrop of escalating climate change, a growing population, and ineffective governance, the country stands on the brink of ecological collapse.

The Indus River must be reimagined not merely as a resource to be allocated but as a vital, living heritage that nourishes ecosystems, communities, and cultures. What Pakistan urgently needs is a new water governance model grounded in climate science and equity.

At the centre of this crisis is the outdated 1991 Indus Water Accord — a rigid framework that no longer reflects Pakistan’s contemporary needs or demographic realities. Initially crafted when the country’s population was around 115 million, this agreement now governs a population of over 240m.

Its static allocations favour Punjab with 48 per cent of the Indus River’s waters, while Sindh receives 42pc, and Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are left with marginal shares. This imbalance has heightened interprovincial tensions, turning rivers into battlegrounds.

The Indus River must be seen not just as a resource to divide up but as a living heritage to be protected lest Pakistan permanently ruins its greatest source of water

The $3.3 billion Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI), centred on expansive canal infrastructure, has raised serious concerns — especially in Sindh. Critics contend that it reflects a top-down, supply-driven model of development that disregards the ecological integrity of fragile regions like the Indus Delta.

Historically, riparian rights have ensured that those living along rivers are entitled to fair and natural access to water, emphasising balanced and equitable use. As climate change intensifies the strain on water systems, the GPI’s lack of climate-adaptive and resilient governance strategies appears increasingly shortsighted.

At its core, the debate is not merely about the GPI; it’s about the fate of the Indus. Pakistan’s water disputes date back more than a century. As early as 1901, water restrictions were imposed on Sindh. The issue resurfaced in the 1945 Inter-Provincial Water Agreement, which recognised Sindh’s historical rights. Most recently, the Sindh Assembly unanimously passed a resolution in March 2025 opposing upstream projects on the Indus — a move echoing past resolutions of 1939 and 1945.

Pakistan’s antiquated water management system is buckling under the weight of modern challenges — glacial melt, unpredictable rainfall, and severe flooding. According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, even if global emissions are fully curbed by 2050, a third of the Himalayan glaciers will still disappear by the end of the century.

The 2022 super floods serve as a stark reminder. Sindh experienced a serious spike in rainfall anomalies, highlighting the urgent need for data-driven, equitable, and climate-responsive policies. Yet the GPI continues to prioritise concrete over climate.

Perhaps most concerning is the failure to ensure a minimum freshwater flow — 10m acre-feet (MAF) — to the Indus Delta. Excessive upstream diversions, especially in Punjab, have led to severe ecological degradation. Groundwater over-extraction, now exceeding 50 MAF annually, is depleting aquifers and threatening deltaic life with seawater intrusion.

The global record is clear: large-scale canal projects often lead to ecological disasters. From Egypt’s failed Toshka project to the tragic desiccation of the Aral Sea, history is filled with cautionary tales. Yet, Pakistan seems poised to repeat these mistakes. Other countries offer valuable lessons.

The US and Australia have adopted adaptive frameworks, updating water allocations based on real-time data and protecting environmental flows. The Sustainable Rivers Programme in the US has successfully aligned infrastructure with ecological priorities, restoring biodiversity and strengthening local economies.

Moreover, international legal commitments cannot be ignored. Pakistan is a signatory to the Ramsar Convention, which recognises the Indus Delta as a protected wetland. Under this framework, the country is obliged to maintain freshwater flows. Ignoring these commitments undermines not just ecosystems, but Pakistan’s credibility on the global stage.

Legal precedents, like the US Supreme Court’s Riverside Bayview Homes decision, show that wetlands deserve enforceable legal protection. Pakistan must act similarly, legally safeguarding freshwater flows to the Indus Delta to prevent irreversible damage to fisheries, ecosystems, and local livelihoods.

Ultimately, the solution lies not in more concrete but in a transformative shift in mindset. Ensuring Pakistan’s water-secure future requires, firstly, adaptive water allocations aligned with real-time availability and ecological needs; secondly, legally mandated freshwater flows to the Indus Delta to avert ecological collapse; and thirdly, modernised irrigation systems to minimise losses and boost efficiency.

Alongside these reforms, the country must also champion smart agriculture and promote the cultivation of high-value, diversified crops backed by strong support from financial institutions.

The Indus River must be seen not just as a resource to divide but as a living heritage, an ancestral artery sustaining ecosystems, communities, and cultures.

At this pivotal juncture, the way forward must favour collaboration over confrontation, ecological balance over unchecked development, and long-term stewardship over short-term interests. Only through this shift can Pakistan build a water-secure, climate-resilient future.

The writer is the Pro Vice Chancellor at Dawood University of Engineering and Technology

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 19th, 2025