THE Trump administration’s threats aimed at Iran do not bode well for global peace, and unless Washington changes its harsh tone, a new and destructive confrontation in the Middle East is very likely. Donald Trump had written to the Iranian leadership early last month, asking Tehran to resume talks on the nuclear issue. However, he also threatened to attack Iran if it failed to comply. Over the weekend, the US president again ratcheted up the threats, saying that if Iran did not return to the table, “there will be bombing ... the likes of which they have never seen before”. The threat did not go down well in Tehran, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stating in his Eid sermon that an American attack would receive “a strong reciprocal blow”. These developments could simply be viewed as posturing under Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign designed to bring the Iranians to heel. However, the accompanying military moves spell trouble. For example, the American bombing campaign against the pro-Iran Houthis in Yemen is being seen as a message to Tehran, while the US is dispatching another aircraft carrier to the region, along with assembling more bombers on Iran’s periphery. Even a slight miscalculation in such combustible conditions could lead to immense devastation.

While militarily there is no parallel between the American war machine and Iran’s defensive capabilities, any armed engagement would be catastrophic, hammering the global economy. After all, the US has several bases and tens of thousands of troops in the region; all of this would be within the reach of Iranian missiles in case of an attack. This is why the Gulf states have reportedly warned the US against involving them in any hostile action against Iran, while Russia has also raised the alarm. Any instability in the wider region would also have negative consequences for Pakistan, bringing another war to its borders. Therefore, the US needs to back down and engage Iran with respect. While America wants a complete rollback of the Iranian nuclear programme, this is unlikely. The Iranians are willing to negotiate, but not with a gun to their head. The following weeks will be critical; either the US can address the crisis with wisdom (which seems to be in short supply in Washington) or risk a conflagration with global consequences.

Published in Dawn, April 3rd, 2025