ISLAMABAD: The exports of merchandise slowed for the third consecutive month in January due to a slight fall in international demands, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

On a year-on-year basis, the exports grew 11.83pc in July, followed by 16pc in August, 13.52pc in September, 10.64pc in October, 8.98pc in November, 0.67pc in December and 0.31pc in January.

Exports in December 2024 were $2.911bn.

The slowdown may worry policymakers, although other analysts believe that exports often fall from November to January due to seasonal changes.

Trade gap widens 18pc to $2.31bn in January

The growth momentum in exports from Pakistan picked pace in July owing to improved orders and stability in the exchange rate. Demand from North America and European countries is anticipated to pick up pace from January onwards.

Textile exporters are optimistic US retailers and buyers are visiting Pakistan to place orders, with many orders already in the pipeline. A similar trend was observed from buyers in the European market.

However, the exports reached $2.92bn in January against $2.792bn in the same month last year, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.59pc.

In the first seven months of FY25, export proceeds stood at $19.55bn in July-November FY25 as against $17.77bn over the corresponding months of last year, an increase of 9.98pc.

Global buyers have redirected clothing sourcing from Bangladesh and China and placed orders with Pakistan in the past few months. It allows exporters to capitalise on the opportunity and capture the market.

The impact of the recent rise in gas tariffs for captive power plants (CPPs), along with a phase-wise 20pc levy on the supply of natural gas/RLNG-based CPPs, on textile exports will be visible in the following months.

According to the exporters, high input costs squeeze their margins and limit their capacity to reinvest and expand operations. The Ministry of Commerce has already submitted a range of proposals to the prime minister to facilitate exports.

In FY24, Pakistan’s merchandise exports rose 10.54pc to $30.64bn from $27.72bn in the preceding year.

Trade deficit

According to the PBS data, imports grew 6.95pc to $33.04bn in July-January FY25 from $30.89bn over the last year. Imports surged to $5.23bn in January from $4.75bn last year, an increase of 10.04pc. Month-on-month, imports decreased 2.33pc.

The IMF revised its import forecast downward by $3.3bn from $60.5bn to $57.2bn for FY25, converging with the government’s projection of $57.3bn. In FY24, imports fell 0.84pc to $54.73bn compared to $55.19bn in FY23.

The trade deficit increased by 2.84pc to $13.48bn in July-January FY25 from $13.12bn in the same period last year. In January, the deficit increased by 17.78pc to $2.32bn from $1.96bn last year. The trade gap contracted to $24.08bn in FY24 from $27.47bn in the preceding year.

Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2025