TEHRAN: Iran’s once-youthful population is aging fast, fuelling economic fears as cash-strapped couples resist a government push for more children.

Driven by rising life expectancy and dramatically declining birth rates, Iran’s demographic makeup has shifted over the years, mirroring trends across much of the world.

The National Population Research Institute has found that the country’s 86-million-strong population is aging five times faster than it is growing, according to official news agency IRNA, and the UN projects that by 2050 one-third of Iranians will be 60 or older _ a three-fold increase from 2021.

“With this ongoing trend, the country will face a serious crisis in the future,” Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni warned last month.

He said Iran’s population could shrink by more than half its size over the next 75 years.

Authorities have launched public campaigns to encourage Iranians to have more children, with eye-catching billboards and posters periodically popping up across the country.

“Children, the pulse of our lives!” read one poster, showing a couple with four children.

A billboard featuring a happy family had the caption: “Life is better when happy _ having kids is better when you have many.”

Shaho Sabbar of the University of Tehran said the “negative impact” of Iran’s changing demography “has started to be felt over the past decade”.

The long-term impact could be “significant”, Sabbar said.

“As the number of working-age individuals declines, Iran may face labour shortage, reduced economic growth and an increased burden on the younger generation to support the elderly.”

‘Huge undertaking’

During the war with Iraq war in the 1980s, Iran experienced a baby boom, in part due to a successful government campaign to encourage more births.

But as the country was struggling to rebuild its economy after the war, the government reversed its policy, urging Iranian families to have no more than two children.

Fertility rates have since plummeted, from an average of 6.4 children per woman to just 1.6 in 2023, according to National Population Research Institute head Mohammad Javad Mahmoudi.

Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2025