NAIROBI: Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed on a joint declaration to resolve their dispute over the breakaway Somaliland region and land-locked Ethiopia’s push for sea access, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced, according to Al Jazeera.

The two parties reached a deal to end a bitter, nearly year-long dispute, following talks in Turkiye.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed the “historic agreement”, which he said would eventually ensure landlocked Ethiopia’s access to the sea, reported by BBC.

At the press conference he held hands with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who both agreed to respect one another’s “sovereignty”.

The move has been welcomed by international observers, skittish at the thought of rising tensions in the volatile Horn of Africa. But how did we get here and what could it mean for the region?

What led to this point?

Addis Ababa and Mogadishu have been at loggerheads since landlocked Ethiopia struck a deal in January with Somalia’s breakaway region Somaliland to lease a stretch of coastline for a port and military base in exchange for recognition.

Somaliland unilaterally declared independence in 1991 and said the deal would see it formally recognised by Ethiopia, although this has never been confirmed by Addis Ababa. Mogadishu reacted furiously, claiming the agreement was a violation of its sovereignty.

Tensions rose further in April when Somalia expelled Ethiopia’s ambassador and said Ethiopian troops would be excluded from a new African Union peacekeeping force against Al Shabaab insurgents, due to be deployed on Jan 1.

Why are international observers concerned?

Security analysts worried that tensions between the two might create opportunities for fighter group Al Shabaab.

Mogadishu had threatened to force Ethiopia to remove some 10,000 experienced troops from its shared border in the country’s southwest, among the worst impacted areas by Al Shabaab.

A “fundamental breakdown” in the Ethiopia-Somalia relationship spelled trouble, International Crisis Group’s Omar Mahmood said in September. “Al-Shabaab is the winner... they can take advantage of the gaps,” he said.

What do we know about the details?

Very little. It was mediated by Turkiye following two unsuccessful rounds of talks.

In a text published by Ankara, the two neighbours agreed to work together on commercial arrangements and bilateral agreements that would ensure Ethiopia’s “reliable, safe and sustainable access” to the sea “under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia”.

It added that technical talks would start no later than the end of February and be completed within four months.

What about the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement?

This is crucial and no-one knows how the agreement may affect the controversial memorandum of understanding from January.

Hargeisa has yet to make a formal statement on the news, with Ethiopian authorities also not responding to agencies requests for comment. Guleid Ahmed Jama, a Somaliland lawyer and political analyst, said that the agreement “indicates that Ethiopia is repudiating some of its commitments concerning the recognition of Somaliland”.

“This will not deter Somaliland from continuing to pursue international recognition, but it is obviously a setback,” he said.

But Jama said Somaliland remained a viable location for Ethiopia’s ports, thanks to its proximity. “It is not yet clear how Ethiopia will navigate between the diplomatic pressure from Somalia and its interest in Somaliland.”

What’s the reaction from elsewhere?

The African Union and East African regional bloc IGAD (the Intergovernmental Authority on Development) welcomed the news, with the AU pushing the neighbours to implement the agreement “without delay”.

Mahmood, of the International Crisis Group, said the agreement was a welcome “surprise” for the region. “It lowers the tension, which until then was dangerous,” he said and told both sides were “winners” in the agreement.

“Abiy gets commitment for access to the sea, (though without the mention of the naval base), while for Somalia the agreement recognises its sovereignty,” he explained.

Published in Dawn, December 13th, 2024