LAHORE: A nearly 10 per cent increase in phutti (raw cotton) arrivals in the first fortnight of October has given a pleasant shock to market watchers and rekindled hopes that total local lint production may touch the six million bales mark.

The figures released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) on Friday reveal that at least 1.06m bales of raw cotton reached ginning factories during the Oct 1-15 fortnight compared to 0.97m bales in the same fortnight last year.

However, total phutti arrivals during the ongoing cotton year has been reported at 3.101m bales against 5.996m bales recorded on the same date in the last cotton year — reflecting a sharp decline of 48.26pc in the lint output.

In Punjab, around 1.185m bales have been produced so far this year, compared to 2.543m bales by this time last year, a 53.38pc drop this season. Likewise, Sindh’s output had fallen from 3.452m bales in 2023-24 to 1.916m bales in 2024-25, marking a 44.52pc decrease.

Overall cotton production falls 48pc till Oct 15

Pakistan Cotton Brokers Association Secretary Sundas Ayub says this fortnight saw a pretty good show of arrival, which hit its peak with good quality. However, the market, with a little fumble due to arrival pressure, remains stable owing to active buying by the mills to grab quality lint.

Big arrival this fortnight may psychologically affect the buyer’s mind to be bearish for the time being, which seems unlikely because of firm phutti prices, she adds.

Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum Chairman Naseem Usman believes that around 1.5m bales remained unregistered to avert heavy taxes imposed on the ginners in the budget. He claims that import deals for 3m bales have been finalised by the textile industry to meet its garment export targets and that the arrival of imported cotton has also begun.

The unexpected hike in phutti arrivals has also made 184 more ginning units functional taking the number to 536 in the current season, says Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsanul Haq.

He says that if the weather conditions remain favourable, total cotton production may touch the 6m bales mark this season.

Besides economic challenges like an unorganised market system, exploitation of farmers by the middlemen and poor support from the government, the cotton crop is severely impacted by climate change, extreme heat, torrential rains, and pest attacks.

Published in Dawn, October 19th, 2024