ISLAMABAD: Balochistan should harness its vast potential of variable renewable energy (VRE) to create a surplus of electricity that can be exported to other provinces or internationally, reducing its reliance on power imports, suggests a World Bank study released on Thursday.

The Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study notes that the existing import connection lines can be used to stabilise the grid, exchange electricity with other countries at a competitive price, and optimise the annual supply mix.

In the short term (2028), a surplus VRE supply may not be available for consistent export throughout the year, but there might be a seasonal opportunity for export (reverse power flow) through the soon-available Central Asia-South Asia (CASA1000) HVDC transmission line to Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic, and potentially Kazakhstan).

In this Central Asia Regional Electricity Market (CAREM), countries have an electricity deficit in winter, and demand is growing. According to the study, countries in Central Asia might be interested in supporting the GW-scale opportunity for their seasonal electricity demand deficit.

Long-term development can gnerate export surplus, cut reliance on imports

The study points out that Balochistan offers an impressive, largely untapped resource potential for economically viable solar and wind power generation. With a Photovoltaic (PV) potential ranging from 2,000 to 2,500kWh/m2, Balochistan emerges as one of the world’s most resource-rich regions. PV power in Balochistan can achieve up to 35 per cent grid utilisation, and its supply profile correlates positively with the demand profile.

Additionally, excellent available Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) of up to 2,500kWh/m² per year in some areas of Balochistan offers the best opportunities for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). Balochistan has the best spots for wind power within Pakistan in the remote areas of Chagai and Panjgur, corresponding to a 15 GW power generation potential capacity at a highly competitive cost from clean energy resources.

Roughly 5GW of short-term opportunity in 28 sites for different types of technology have been identified - based on the long list of priority sites identified by the VRE Locational Study, exploring the grid slots and land availability in more depth and analysing them further to achieve the most competitive generation from VRE. The study says this significant potential capacity is the “low-hanging fruit” opportunity, which can be unlocked in the short term (2028) by utilising the current grid infrastructure.

The study says implementing the identified VRE by 2028 would not only help Balochistan transition fully toward clean energy — as the VRE potential surpasses the Balochistan demand in 2028 — but also create an opportunity for other provinces to access competitive low-cost RE energy.

In addition, there is a potential for 1.7GWp Distributed PV to solarise about 28,000 grid-connected tube wells operated by farmers. Installation of DPV would not only free up additional grid capacity for further VRE installation but, when combined with the investment in efficient motors and pumps, dramatically reduce the electricity losses in this segment.

It would improve the electricity company’s financial stability by reducing its around $500 million annual losses by 2028, contributing to lowering the sector’s circular debt.

Published in Dawn, August 9th, 2024