THE Middle East, and the wider international community, is collectively holding its breath, waiting to see how Iran and its regional allies react to the assassinations by Israel earlier this week of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. A reaction to the Israeli provocations is almost certain; it is the ‘when’ and ‘how’ of it that are of most consequence. Both Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah have vowed revenge. For the Iranians, the assassination of such a high-profile individual as Haniyeh in Tehran is a major embarrassment and security lapse, and they are unlikely to let Israel get away with it without some punitive action. Likewise, Shukr was very high up in Hezbollah’s military structure, and hitting him in the Lebanese group’s stronghold of Dahiyeh in Beirut is being viewed as crossing a red line. Though Israeli officials say they do not want war, they are certainly doing all they can to spark a major conflagration in the region. For example, on Saturday Israel murdered a Hezbollah operative in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, the US, Israel’s principal foreign benefactor, is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, the US defence secretary said there are “opportunities for diplomacy”, on the other, Washington has dispatched more fighter aircraft and ships to boost Israel’s defences against the expected Iranian attack.

It is unlikely that sending in heavy artillery will convince Iran and its allies that the US is interested in ‘diplomacy’, unless it is of the gunboat variety. Moreover, a Pentagon spokesperson has said that the US is ready to deploy at short notice “to meet … national security threats”. It seems the fine line between Israeli security and American security has disappeared, and the US establishment is ready to jump headlong into the Middle Eastern inferno to defend Israel and its vile behaviour. While the US may have the advantage in firepower and technology, this is Iran’s backyard, and it has allied forces across the region. Therefore, any confrontation will be long, and messy. It is still possible to de-escalate, and temperatures will start to come down if Israel stops its genocidal campaign in Gaza. Yet there is little evidence that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in peace. The world should brace itself for the gathering storm over the Middle East.

Published in Dawn, August 4th, 2024