KYIV: Ukraine’s central bank has predicted emigration levels this year will be far higher than previously forecast, largely due to power cuts caused by Russian attacks on energy facilities.

“The worsening of the energy situation and slow normalisation of the economic conditions will lead to a larger outflow of migrants abroad in 2024 and 2025 than previously expected,” the National Bank of Ukraine said in a report released on Thurs­day.

It predicted there would be a net outflow of 400,000 people this year, while the outflow would be 300,000 people next year.

In April, the central bank had forecast that a net 200,000 Ukrainians would leave this year, but a net 400,000 would return from abroad next year.

The higher emigration is due to “significant destr­uc­tion of the Ukrai­nian energy system, which is accompanied by long power outages and increased risks for the (winter) heating season”, the central bank said.

Beyond the inability to heat homes, power cuts reduce economic activity and demand for workers, further stimulating migration, it said.

The economy has also been hit by millions of young men leaving the country, some doing so illegally to avoid mobilisation, although their exact numbers are hard to quantify.

The bank now predicts that there will be a net return of 400,000 in 2026, but the process will be “gradual” as Ukrainians get more accustomed to living abroad while conditions at home will be harder than previously anticipated.

The report cited UN figures from last month that there are now 6.6 million Ukrainians living abroad, up almost 240,000 since the start of the year.

The total population of Ukraine is the subject of debate since the last census was in 2001 — giving a figure of over 48 million.

Published in Dawn, August 3rd, 2024