FRIDAY’S snap presidential election in Iran, called after the shock deaths of Ebrahim Raisi and members of his government in a helicopter crash in May, has failed to deliver a conclusive winner. Since neither Masoud Pezeshkian nor Saeed Jalili — the front runners — were able to clinch 50pc of the vote needed to win the presidency, a run-off election will be held on July 5. It was a close contest, with Mr Pezeshkian slightly ahead of Mr Jalili. However, these dynamics may change on Friday, particularly if the conservative camp rallies around Saeed Jalili. Mr Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, is considered close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and would likely continue the policies of Raisi. Mr Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon and former health minister, is more of a centrist, with the backing of the reformist camp.

The results of the poll reflect the fissures within Iranian society, with more conservative voters backing Mr Jalili and ex-Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who came in third, while the ‘change’ camp has endorsed Mr Pezeshkian. Around 40pc of the electorate participated in the snap polls. Of course, considerable challenges confront whoever enters the Iranian presidency. Iran’s two biggest challenges remain its moribund economy, and the fragile geopolitical situation regionally. Due to crippling US sanctions, as well as mismanagement, Iran has not been able to reach its full economic potential. The next Iranian president, therefore, will need to go the extra mile to bring down inflation and revive the economy. Geopolitically, Iran is in the midst of an undeclared war with Israel, backing armed factions across the Middle East. If Israel were foolhardy enough to launch an attack on Hezbollah, Iran is unlikely to leave its Lebanese ally in the lurch, while America has promised to come to Israel’s aid in case of such a scenario. Hence, the incoming Iranian president will have to steer his country through a geopolitical minefield.

Published in Dawn, June 30th, 2024