LAHORE: Pakistan and India will encounter substantial water challenges in the Indus Basin over the next 15 years; therefore, they will have to talk to each other, former federal minister Fawad Chaudhry says.

Speaking at a seminar, titled Indian Election and its effects on South Asia, organised by the National Institute of Political Education on Saturday, Mr Chaudhry said: “Failure to accomplish cooperation over the water issue could result in the region becoming unstable”. He said the resolution to water-related issues in the Indus Basin was essential for the preservation of regional stability.

“Former prime minister Imran Khan and ex-army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa were in favour of holding talks with India. If we have to go to Indian Punjab, which is a few kilometres from here, we have to take a flight via Dubai. There should be no visa between the two countries,” he said.

Mr Chaudhry detailed the background of Indian national election campaigns, saying, “it is anticipated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration will continue to be profoundly rooted in an Islamophobic and anti-Pakistan narrative. This will exacerbate regional tensions”. He said the stability of the BJP had been further compromised by internal disputes, particularly those between Adityanath and Amit Shah.

“The BJP has been disadvantaged by the substantial Muslim voter turnout that has been mobilised in response to the devastation of mosques in Ayodhya and Faizabad. The Congress party has used economic disparity slogan to establish a presence in critical states such as West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. Despite having a considerable Hindu population, these states were instrumental in limiting the BJP’s majority,” Fawad Chaudhry said and added that the BJP government’s future stability was dependent on its allies, particularly N. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitesh Kumar’s 46 seats. Nevertheless, he said the ideological divide between these allies and the BJP’s extremist policies meant that a coalition unity breakdown was imminent.

“This instability suggests that the BJP may not complete its tenure, which would allow Rahul Gandhi to become the next prime minister of India,” Mr Chaudhry said and added that the BJP’s internal conflicts and Modi’s current policies served as substantial impediments to this collaboration.

Journalists Mujibur Rehman Shami, Salman Abid and Adnan Adil were among the other speakers.

Published in Dawn, June 9th, 2024