A sense of foreboding prevails over the Middle East, as regional states in particular, and the international community overall, await Iran’s response to Israel’s attack on its diplomatic facilities in Damascus last week. While there has been plenty of rhetoric from all sides, both Iran and the US have so far managed the crisis carefully, though the danger is far from over.

For Tehran’s rulers, the dilemma is considerable. If the Iranians react too strongly, Israel can call its Western allies — primarily the US — for help by playing the victim card and ensuring a regional conflagration. If Iran fails to react, it will be seen as weak domestically, unable to defend its interests abroad, and Israel will be emboldened.

The strike on the Iranian embassy’s consular section may mark a turning point, as the temperature in the region — in the aftermath of the Oct 7 events — has reached boiling point.

The key to preventing further escalation in this scenario lies with the West, particularly the US. America must communicate to Israel that further provocations, particularly targeting sovereign states, will be unacceptable.

The UN Security Council should send a similar message to Israel and its backers. If Israel is allowed to continue its provocative behaviour, then the ‘next big one’ might be closer than we think.

Read the full editorial here.