CHITRAL: The two electable candidates of the newly-established Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf-Parliamentarians (PTI-P) are likely to win the two provincial assembly constituencies of PK-1, Upper Chitral, and PK-2, Lower Chitral, according to political analysts.

In PK-1, 10 candidates are in the run, including Haji Ghulam Mohammad of PTI-P, Siraj Ali Khan of PPP, Shakil Ahmed of JUI-F, Javed Hussain of JI, Surayya Bibi of PTI, and independents Naveed Sultan, Mukhtar Nabi alias Pir Mukhtar, Prof Rahmat Karim Baig and others.

Of the candidates, Ghulam Mohammad had returned from the constituency twice in 2008 and 2013, contesting on the tickets of former military ruler Parvez Musharraf’s All Pakistan Muslim League and PML-N, respectively, while in 2018, he lost to Muttahida Majlis Amal candidate when he contested the seat on PPP ticket.

He is one of the electable candidates from the constituency, and that is why, he was chosen by PTI-P chief Pervez Khattak shortly before the announcement of the date for the Feb 8 elections. He was the nominee of PPP when he was picked by Mr Khattak.

Analysts say both candidates enjoy ‘strong’ public support

He proved his mettle to Mr Khattak by holding a mammoth gathering in Booni town in which hundreds of PTI workers announced joining the party in the presence of Mr Khattak, and Mahmood Khan, also a former chief minister.

The political analysts describe his strength to be his widespread popularity in the area as a businessman and politician plus his Zondre tribe, which has a huge numerical superiority in his native Mastuj tehsil. The tribe has been voting in complete unison whenever a tribesman from it contests polls, and the election of Sardar Hakim to the office of tehsil chairman in the last local body polls corroborates this fact.

Surayya Bibi of PTI is considered to be hotly chasing Ghulam Mohammad on the basis of her party’s strength in Upper Chitral, which is considered a stronghold of the party as is evident from the results of the last local body elections in which both the seats of tehsil chairman and 80 per cent village council chairmen were grabbed by PTI.

She is said to be gathering the votes of sympathy from the electorate on the basis of her fine disposition as she has been very respectful to her opponents holding them in high esteem while she also enjoys the clout of her deceased father, Noor Alam Khan, who remained the vice-chairman of the Chitral district council for three consecutive terms.

JUI-F’s Qari Shakil is also a potential candidate due to the vigorous electioneering of Senator Talha Mahmood of his party for NA-1 in the area by allegedly doling out cash and issuing tokens for ration.

The JUI-F candidate has emerged victorious in the constituency in the past when he contested election in league with JI from the platform of MMA, but independently both the parties don’t have the strength to win the seat.

Maulana Sahibuddin, a candidate of Pakistan Rah-i-Haq Party, which has considerable voters in the area, has also withdrawn in his favour, and it may augment Mr Ahmed’s position.

PPP’s Siraj Ali is yet another powerful contender for PK-1, but the party has a feeble position as it has lost a large number of its workers to PTI and did very poor in the last local body polls.

In PK-2, Lower Chitral, PTI-P’s Shahzada Khalid Parvez, PPP’s Saleem Khan and PTI’s Fatehul Mulk Ali Nasir are the three main contestants, out of the eight candidates in the run, including JI’s Maghfirat Shah, JUI-F’s Faiz Mohammad Maqsood and independents Mohammad Hussain and Luke Rahmat.

Shahzada Parvez was a nominee of PPP for the constituency as he had returned as tehsil chairman of Drosh on its ticket in 2022 local body elections.

In November 2023, however, he resigned from the office of tehsil chairman and renounced PPP to join the newly-established PTI-P and showed his strength by arranging a large gathering of his supporters when party chief Pervez Khattak visited Chitral in December 2023.

Shahzada Parvez has to his advantage of being the son of Shahzada Mohyuddin, a four-time MNA from Chitral, who had strong political followers to vote him to power whenever he contested elections for four decades starting from 1983, when he was elected as chairman of district council.

The candidates of PML-N, ANP and Pakistan Rah-i-Haq Party have withdrawn in his favour, and it may give him a strong leverage against his opponents. He also has a strong clout in the Gujar community with a sizeable vote bank of about 7,000.

PPP’s Saleem Khan had returned from the constituency in 2008 and 2013. He is said to be the close rival of Shahzada Parvez by dint of his party position and his ancestral valley of Lot Koh, which had voted for him heavily to knock out his opponents.

The success of Saleem Khan is dependent on the 40,000 votes of Lot Koh, which have elevated him to the assembly seat, but this time, PTI hopeful Fatehul Mulk Ali Nasir, and an independent candidate, Mohammad Hussain may divide the voters to his disadvantage.

Due to the strength of PTI and his personal status of being the ceremonial Mehtar (ruler) of Chitral, Mr Nasir will surpass Mr Saleem and scramble to the top if the voters in Lot Koh stood divided.

JUI-F’s Faiz Maqsood and JI’s Maghfirat Shah may contest for the fourth position as both the religio-political parties have never been triumphant in any election, be it local bodies or national.

Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2024