THIS is with reference to the article ‘Spoiling peace’ (Jan 7), which quoted John Stedman’s theory to castigate ‘spoilers’ in Balochistan whose selfish interests do not allow the negotiations with the ‘aggrieved Baloch’ to succeed. Such serious allegations merit a serious debate as it is intriguing that while quoting Stedman, the article neither identified the ‘spoilers’ nor their motives and incentives.
The relevance of Stedman’s theory is more for conflicts like in Angola and Rwanda, where influential political factions like Jonas Savimbi’s National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (Unita) walked out of Angola’s peace process, and the Hutus in Rwanda rejected the Arusha Peace Accords in 1994. Perhaps the theory more germane to the conflict in Balochistan would be Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler’s greed theory, or the grievance theory of political economist David Keen.
What is happening in Balochistan is more in line with a combination of greed and grievance theories wherein conflict actors, who are motivated by grievances rooted in relative deprivation, horizontal economic inequality and political polarisation, are sustained by the greed of insurgency leaders to appropriate politico-economic control of the provincial resources.
The resolution of the conflict lies in addressing the structure of violence by focussing on the causes of conflict.
Has the state of Pakistan ever baulked at the prospects of peace negotiations with Baloch insurgents? On their part, are the insurgents ready to join the national mainstream and clearly renounce violence? If they are ready, then at what cost? These are the kind of questions that the state and the insurgents need to ask themselves.
Another variable to the peace-and-conflict equation is the proxy warfare imposed by external funding to keep Balochistan destabilised and the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) delayed.
A truely holistic view of all factors and a sincere engagement with the insurgents to assuage their grievances is the right approach with due renunciation of the violence by the insurgents as a recompense for the state that engages with sincerity.
Dr Raashid Wali Janjua
Islamabad
Published in Dawn, February 1st, 2024
