RECENT reports pointing to indirect US-Iranian negotiations, through Omani interlocutors, over Tehran’s nuclear programme have revived hopes that a new deal may be possible. The much-heralded 2015 document was torpedoed by the Trump administration, and there may be a small window of opportunity to revive the JCPOA, or hammer out a new deal. News reports say that senior American and Iranian officials quietly discussed the nuclear file in the sultanate in May, with the host nation shuttling between both sides. The theme of the discussion was apparently de-escalation, with the Americans hoping that Tehran would freeze its nuclear activity and free its citizens being held in Iran. The Islamic Republic, meanwhile, expects easing of crushing US-led sanctions, access to its frozen funds abroad, and re-entry into the international oil market. The fact that the Iranian supreme leader has reportedly given his blessings to the process speaks of the seriousness of the negotiations.
If a new deal is reached, it would be a win-win situation for all. But this is a big if. Iran would benefit greatly, as even the partial lifting of sanctions would help revive its battered economy, while the chances of a potentially devastating US-Iranian military clash would be lessened. However, time is short. A presidential election is due in America next year, and once candidates hit the campaign trail, they will seek to appear ‘tough’ on Tehran in order to appease powerful anti-Iran lobbies in the US. Moreover, hawkish members of the US Congress — Republicans and Democrats — have said that any new deal would have to pass through them. This means that the Biden administration may only have the next few months to pull off a deal. The US should present a workable offer to Tehran, which should consider what is on the table to secure relief for its people. However, one major spoiler, apart from anti-Iran hawks in the US establishment, in this geopolitical game can throw a spanner in the works: Israel. Reports say that Tel Aviv may be planning to hit Iranian nuclear facilities in order to significantly damage Tehran’s atomic programme. This would be foolishness of immense proportions, and can set off a firestorm in the Middle East that will be nearly impossible to control. The US, therefore, needs to muzzle Israel so that it does not attempt such a misadventure.
Published in Dawn, June 18th, 2023
