THE latent confrontation between the US-led West and Russia had been brewing for years before hostilities exploded into the open with Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine last February. Worryingly, tensions between Washington and Beijing are following the same trajectory, and unless there is a radical reset in either capital, this conflict also has the potential to explode into open hostility. The recent remarks by Chinese President Xi Jinping and the new Chinese foreign minister certainly point to rising temperatures in Sino-US relations. President Xi commented that the US was leading the “containment, encirclement and suppression of China”, adding that his country must “have the courage to fight”. In separate comments, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang spoke of “conflict and confrontation” between his country and the US, warning of “catastrophic consequences” if Washington continued on its current path. Key US policymakers have also been quite open about the China ‘threat’, with a senior air force official telling his men in January that the US may go to war with China by 2025. Tensions have been spiralling over the past several months: the US shot down a Chinese ‘spy’ balloon over its territory in early February, and American officials, including the president, frequently bring up the issue of Taiwan’s defence. The fact is that China is now America’s premier strategic competitor.

The possibility of a Sino-US conflict should be of concern to the Global South, particularly countries such as Pakistan which have worked closely with both Beijing and Washington. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is a faraway one, which Pakistan can ignore without sacrificing much. But if the US and China clash, this country, amongst others, will be in a very difficult position, and have to make some tough foreign policy decisions. Neutrality is the best option, but perhaps an unrealistic one as both Beijing and Washington would expect states to take positions. With hostilities between China and the US deepening, our policymakers need to plan ahead.

Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2023