A YEAR after the Russian military rumbled into Ukraine, the conflict is locked in a stalemate, with neither side willing to back down, and the threat of escalation ever-present. In effect the war has pitted Russia against the Nato-EU combine, the latter framing the conflict as a battle of democracy versus fascism. Things are a little more complex than that. While the invasion — dubbed a special military operation by Moscow — is patently unjustifiable, Russia and the West had been baiting each other for years, and Ukraine was the spark that brought hostilities into the open. Both sides have contributed to the crisis; Russia by invading a sovereign state, and the US-led West by expanding Nato virtually up to the Russian frontier, fuelling Moscow’s fears that it was being encircled.

At present, there appear next to no signs that both sides are willing to compromise, and seem determined to fight this war to the finish. Commenting on German tanks reaching Ukraine via Poland, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said Moscow was ready to take the battle “to the borders of Poland”. At the other end, America’s top diplomat Antony Blinken dismissed China’s plan for a ceasefire in the UN, saying it will give Russia a chance to consolidate its position. In previous remarks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has summoned the ghosts of World War II, recalling that German tanks were once again headed east — a chilling allusion to the brutal Battle of Stalingrad. Certainly, if both sides continue on the current trajectory, a conflict of global proportions cannot be ruled out. However, apart from the direct combatants — Russia and the West — there is little appetite for getting dragged into the war. At the recent UN General Assembly meeting to discuss the war, 32 states, including Pakistan, abstained on a resolution censuring Russia. Logic demands the war be wound up, but as the history of international relations shows, rational actors can behave entirely irrationally.

Published in Dawn, February 26th, 2023