LAHORE: Though Punjab is mobilising all its resources to ensure on-time wheat sowing, the pace is still slow and the farmers count two main reasons — weather, which is still too hot to facilitate germination, and price uncertainty.

“In the last 24 hours, for the first time night-time chill has set in that could help germinate wheat seed,” explains grower Abad Khan, adding that the sowing may improve in terms of percentage in the next few days but still it is too thin to help predict the trend.

However, the Punjab government officials say it is not only the current weather pattern that is slowing down the process but also the forecasts for November and December when extreme cold is predicted to swarm through the Punjab plains.

The meteorological gurus say that extreme cold could arrive quickly and stay for over 10 weeks. Now the fears are that if wheat sowing gets delayed till mid-November, which is now a reality for a majority of the targeted 16.50 million acres, how will germination, and yield at a later stage, behave? This situation is causing worries now, they say, but still hope for the best.

The farmers’ enthusiasm for wheat is also sapped by the price factor. Mr Khan thinks that farmers are waiting for the Punjab government to announce the final procurement rate. “Sindh announced a rate of Rs4,000 per 40kg and set the benchmark for farmers in rural Punjab. However, the Punjab government is still sticking to Rs3,000, which it had announced in September, with rumours about a revision getting louder by the day. Now, most of the farmers, with their representative bodies pressing the provincial government, are waiting and watching how and when the demand is met, and keeping their fingers crossed,” he explains.

The Punjab officials, however, differ, saying it is not an official announcement but the market price that determines the fate of wheat. “The official announcement, at best, determines the cost of only 30 per cent of (tradable surplus) total yield and 70pc is traded in the open market, where wheat is being traded now at around Rs3,500 per 40kg. So, the farmers may be slow to start sowing for other reasons but the activity will assume the required pace, especially when farmers know that window for sowing and germination is narrow this year. The current crisis around wheat is high prices, not the lower ones. So, farmers will decide sowing and its quantum regardless of the announcement by Punjab,” an official says.

The farmers also accused the Punjab government of jilting wheat for reasons other than the crop. “Right now, no one knows who will deal with the crop when it arrives in the market six months down the line. So, for politicians, it is more of a matter of passing the buck, quietly. That is why policy, clear goals and enthusiasm are missing as far as wheat is concerned,” says Rao Shabir, a wheat farmer. Operatio­nally, Punjab may be pressed into action in the coming days, but the policy remains vague, he concludes.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2022