TWO recent statements from the army chief have given us some insight into what might be going on in the mind of the man who gave Pakistan the ‘Bajwa Doctrine’. While speaking at a private luncheon in Washington last week, and then at a passing-out parade at PMA Kakul on Saturday, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa seemingly outlined what the military’s priorities may be after he steps down next month. Speaking at the Washington lunch, the general had told those present that reviving the country’s ailing economy should be the first priority of all segments of society. He stressed the point by stating that Pakistan cannot achieve its objectives without a strong economy to back it.

The economy is certainly not the army’s domain, and the statement put a damper on his other statement at the same event — the assurance that the army will stay out of politics. But this much was expected from the general, who has taken a keen personal interest in economic affairs. It need only be pointed out that he personally intervened in July to ensure the revival of the IMF programme by reaching out directly to Washington. The second important statement came during Gen Bajwa’s speech to the cadets passing out from PMA Kakul. He said, “The armed forces […] will never allow any country, group or force to politically or economically destabilise Pakistan.” This has widely been perceived as a warning that the army may have had enough of the PTI — especially since the party has been rocking the boat during a time of national crisis. However, it doesn’t take much imagination to see that it could cut both ways.

Consider what was said when the Bajwa Doctrine was first unveiled in March 2018. A selected group of journalists invited to hear it from the army chief was apparently told that Ishaq Dar’s financial vision had been totally rejected and had damaged the state. On the other hand, there was only praise for Miftah Ismail and his management of the economy. Mr Ismail has since served another term as finance minister but was recently forced out by Mr Dar, who is back doing the same job that had given Gen Bajwa grief. The question to be asked now is: has the security establishment completely gotten over its distrust of the finance minister, or could it one day overrule its concerns for stability? Given how deeply invested the military has become in economic management under the incumbent chief, and considering Mr Dar’s continuing predilection for flawed policies, can another run-in between the two be expected? The stakes are high, and Pakistan cannot afford any more experiments, whether they originate from the finance ministry or Aabpara. Will the establishment be able to hold its peace with the government if the economic revival plan does not go as expected?

Published in Dawn, October 11th, 2022