IN promising generous fuel and electricity subsidies as the spectre of a possible ouster raises its head, Prime Minister Imran Khan has shown that his metamorphosis into a brand of politician he once despised is now complete. The relief provides some much-needed protection to citizens burnt by unrelenting inflation. However, as global oil markets are rocked by the Ukraine crisis and prices of the commodity threaten to shoot to historic highs, his gambit risks putting immense pressure on the economy. Fixing fuel and electricity prices for a four-month period at a time of increased global uncertainty is a high-risk bet. Its payout will be mostly political and accrue solely to the PTI, but the bill — expected to run into several hundred billion rupees — will be indirectly footed by Pakistan’s taxpayers. The government claims it has the money, but it is not clear how or even if it had budgeted for the turbulence in international markets. There have been harrowing glimpses of how high prices can go, especially if Opec does not increase supplies or if Russia cuts off oil and gas to Europe. The situation is akin to plugging a finger into a high-pressure line — the results can be catastrophic if the PM’s luck runs out. This is cynical behaviour for a party that professes to put national interests ahead of its own.

In fact, there are striking similarities between the PTI’s move and what its bitter rival, the PML-N, attempted (with futility) under Shahid Khaqan Abbasi on the eve of its departure in April 2018. Then, as now, the government — facing the possibility of removal — had taken a gamble with the economy to win over voters (and the establishment) by lavishing subsidies and tax cuts and jacking up the defence budget without having sufficient fiscal space to do so. The relief measures were to take effect shortly before the July 2018 elections, and any new government that came in was to foot the bill. It was clear then, as now, that those who had made the decisions had given very little thought to the long-term costs. Elected officials have a fiduciary responsibility to ensure that public monies are spent on the good of the people. The blatant self-interest shown by the country’s top political leadership is a clear breach of that trust. Governments should not be willing to stake the economy in their desperate bids to protect and safeguard their own political interests.

Published in Dawn, March 12th, 2022