ISLAMABAD: Pakistan could see further inflation and increase in food prices if any humanitarian crisis occurred in Afghanistan.

“Pakistan ought to adopt a more careful approach towards Afghanistan as the situation in the neighbouring country since change of regime in Kabul has opened a Pandora’s box of strategic and security concerns for it,” the research study prepared by Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) underlined on Sunday.

The First Quarterly Monitoring Report, ‘Perspectives from Pakistan on Afghan Peace and Reconciliation’, warned that Pakistan would be the first country “where inflation and food prices could pick up” further if any humanitarian crisis happened in its western neighbour.

The report that covers a period from July to September 2021 has been prepared on the basis of daily monitoring of Pakistan’s national and social media, international media and in-depth interviews with politicians, academics and experts on Afghan issue.

“The country needs to continue contributing to its efforts aimed at bringing peace and providing humanitarian assistance to the land-locked Afghanistan. At the same time, it must establish friendly relations and extend cooperation with its neighbours including China, Iran and India to avoid any proxy war in Afghanistan, which will certainly hurt Pakistan the most,” read the key findings of the report.

The country’s religious-political parties and religious organisations also followed suit and strongly welcomed and praised the Taliban for their “so-called victory”. But mainstream political parties exercised some caution pointing out the possible fall out of Afghan situation on Pakistan and demanded the government to initiate a debate in the Parliament.

Islamabad has supported an inclusive government in Afghanistan, but has also shown its principal concern that Taliban should not allow Afghan soil to be used against it for terrorism, the research report said, adding that the country had been urging the international community to engage with the Taliban to avoid humanitarian crises, governance collapse as well as a civil war in already war-torn country.

The country’s military leadership views that peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan are interlinked and has been giving warning shots that spoilers will not be allowed to derail the peace process.

The reports and commentaries of Pakistan media suggest that the Taliban takeover has alleviated fears of Pakistan about Indian use of Afghan soil to create trouble in its bordering provinces.

The report says that Pakistan during this political turmoil has repeatedly refused to allow any further resettlement of Afghan refugees in the country due to its economic, security and political challenges.

“Pakistan is confident that it can deal with the possible fallout of the Afghan situation in terms of insecurity and violence, the research quoting independent observers as saying. This confidence is based on “a weak threat assessment,” it adds.

Published in Dawn, November 1st, 2021