ISLAMABAD: The World Bank has said that climate change and natural disasters pose a major challenge to Pakistan’s development, and an estimated 49 million people reside in areas that face the risk of a four-to-five per cent decline in quality of life by 2030.

In its new report ‘South Asia Climate Change Action Plan 2021-25’ released on Friday, the bank says Pakistan is increasingly exposed and vulnerable to various natural hazards, particularly floods, cyclones, droughts and earthquakes. Combined with these vulnerabilities, disasters have caused significant loss of life, economic damage and reversal of development gains over the past 15 years.

Increasingly intense and frequent floods have caused substantial physical damage affecting more than 30m people since 2010, with damage and losses exceeding $14 billion. In addition, flooding causes extensive direct and indirect health effects, including impacts on food production, water provision, ecosystem disruption, infectious disease outbreak, and vector distribution, according to the report.

Country is increasingly exposed, vulnerable to various natural hazards

Pakistan is the 36th most vulnerable country to climate change and the 36th least-ready country in the ‘Natural Disaster Gain Country Index’, and ranks as the fifth most affected country by climate change shocks from 1990 to 2018.

Increasing temperatures are causing northern glaciers to melt, creating around 3,000 glacial lakes, 33 of which are prone to glacial lake outburst floods. Sindh and Balochistan are more prone to water scarcity and drought, receiving as low as 200-250 millimetres of rainfall per year.

Pakistan is also exposed to rising sea levels with a projected increase of 60 centimetres in mean sea level by the end of century. This trend is affecting communities along the coast in addition to harming coastal ecosystems such as the Indus River delta, which is losing its sedimentation at the rate of one millimetre per year.

The World Bank says the agriculture sector continues to face increased risks from both long- and short-term climate variability, including extreme events such as floods and droughts. Pakistan is one of the fastest urbanising countries in South Asia, with cities rapidly emerging as the drivers of economic growth. Unplanned urbanisation is also amplifying climate risks to service delivery as expanding cities grapple with challenges of solid waste management, water supply and drainage, affordable housing and resilience to extreme events.

The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) analysis predicts energy sector emissions to rise 380pc from 2015-2030, the highest increase among economic sectors. Therefore, the most efficient mitigation pathway for Pakistan would be to focus on the energy sector, which in turn has underlying drivers spanning multiple sectors.

Pakistan has committed to reducing up to 20pc of its projected greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, subject to availability of international grants to meet the total abatement cost of $40bn. The NDC estimates Pakistan adaptation costs at $2-$3.8bn annually and focuses on integrated water resources management to reduce flood risks and enhance food security as adaptation priorities for the short term.

Because of weak planning and limited access to financing, Pakistan has been unable to develop its large and affordable hydropower potential or utilise cost-effective solar and wind potential. Pakistan imports nearly a third of its energy resources, which increases the basket cost of electricity. Pakistan’s excellent renewable energy potential has not been realised, with solar and wind representing just four per cent of total installed capacity, and two per cent of actual generation, report says.

A further study by the World Bank shows that Pakistan can achieve 20pc of total capacity from solar and wind by 2025 with minimal upgrades to the electricity grid by utilising spare capacity at existing substations.

Published in Dawn, October 30th, 2021