KARACHI: The second part of a series of online conferences on Afghanistan titled ‘Afghanistan — economic impact, national security and geopolitical backdrop’ took place on Saturday evening.

The first speaker of the day was Dr Shamshad Akhtar, chairperson of the Pakistan Stock Exchange and former governor of State Bank of Pakistan. She said Afghanistan’s fragility owes its basis to the growing security threat, weak institutions and climate risks. Half of its people suffer from intensive and pervasive poverty; even those above the poverty line suffer from low levels of social indicators and poor access to basic services.

The doubling of population by 2050 would mean doubling of the threats posed today unless global efforts are launched to integrate the country through sustainable development and regional cooperation.

Dr Akhtar said her message was about how the global community can help Afghanistan to become a global citizen and turn its economic destiny through its export products and services rather than exporting terrorism and drugs.

Sartaj Aziz, Shamshad Akhtar speak at the second part of online conferences on Afghanistan

She said Afghanistan has paid the price for two consecutive invasions by global powers — the USSR and the US. Launching wars has never offered any durable solution anywhere, so why would it do so in Afghanistan. Nowhere the failure of multilateralism is more evident than in Afghanistan. Resolution of conflicts, be it in Palestine or in Afghanistan, requires singular power approach not quadrilateral power-brokers.

“If international community wishes to resolve conflicts, it needs an empowered global governance mechanism, reinforced by regional institutions that singularly push for peace and stability, reinforced with none other than sustainable development goals,” she added.

The second speaker of the inaugural session was Pakistan’s former federal minister for finance and foreign affairs, Sartaj Aziz. He said the solution of Afghanistan in terms of revival depends on peace and stability. The situation in Afghanistan is changing at such a dramatic pace that it’s difficult to make predictions in the face of so much uncertainty.

He said there are a few positives. First, the dreaded prospect of a prolonged civil war has been averted. “Thankfully, the takeover was relatively peaceful.” Secondly, the initial statements which the Taliban have made are positive and reassuring, that they’ve learned from their mistakes and they will now respect human rights and women’s rights — and there’s general amnesty for everyone. Thirdly, they’ve also endorsed the idea of an inclusive government.

Mr Aziz then raised the question: “Will they (positive aspects) actually lead to peace and stability in Afghanistan?” He said it’s a difficult to answer the question. The main reason for that is that the initial reaction [to the situation] from the US and Western countries is rather negative. It seems that they would do anything to prevent the Taliban from consolidating their hold on the country. They have frozen the assets of Afghanistan and many funds that belong to the people of Afghanistan. The Western media [too] is looking for any piece of evidence to show that the Taliban version 2 is not going to be any different from version 1.

Mr Aziz said this reaction to some extent is understandable because of the humiliating defeat of the strategy that the US advocated. “The question is, supposing that the projected estimate that the CIA gave that the Taliban would take about 90 days to capture Kabul, would mean ferocious fighting between the Afghan National Security Forces and the Taliban. Imagine the casualties it would have cost? Isn’t this a more peaceful takeover? In fact, if you go deeper into it, the agreement between the US and the Taliban on Feb 29, 2020, one of the major clauses was that the Taliban would not allow its territory to be used against any other country. It means that the US expected that the Taliban would actually take over Afghanistan after the US left.”

He then asked: “Is there other viable alternative to durable peace and security in Afghanistan?” And responded, none: because in 20 years the US did not succeed in addressing and solving the structural fault-lines that Afghan society has been suffering from — ethnic, tribal and urban. The institution which harmonises these fault-lines has not been developed. In such a situation you have warlords, lashkars etc.

He argued that the regional countries have much greater stakes in Afghanistan — Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran and the Central Asian countries. Their interest in peace in the country is much greater; it’s their own interest to go forward because of the connectivity between Central Asia and other countries of the region.

The third and last speaker of the opening segment was senior adviser of the UNDP Haroon Sharif. He said the emerging extraordinary transition in the region cannot be looked at in isolation. What has happened in the past 10 years is the expansion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the strengthening of multiple power centres in Asia. There’s a very clear sign of an emergence of a new economic geography.

Najma Minhas moderated the session. Earlier, Mohammad Azfar Ahsan delivered the welcome address.

The moot was organised by Nutshell Group.

Published in Dawn, August 29th, 2021