Explainer: Why India cases are rising to multiple peaks

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In just three weeks, India went from the world’s sixth worst-affected country by the coronavirus to the third, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. India’s fragile health system was bolstered during a stringent months-long lockdown but could still be overwhelmed by an exponential rise in infections.

India has tallied 820,916 infections and more than 22,123 deaths, with cases doubling every three weeks. It is testing more than 250,000 samples daily after months of sluggishness, but experts say this is insufficient for a country of nearly 1.4 billion people.

Health workers escorted by policemen arrive to screen people for Covid-19 symptoms at a slum in Mumbai, India on Friday. — AP
Health workers escorted by policemen arrive to screen people for Covid-19 symptoms at a slum in Mumbai, India on Friday. — AP

“This whole thing about the ‘peak’ is a false bogey because we won’t have one peak in India, but a series of peaks,” said Dr Anant Bhan, a bioethics and global health researcher. He pointed out that the capital of New Delhi and India’s financial capital, Mumbai, had already seen surges, while infections had now begun spreading to smaller cities as governments eased restrictions. The actual toll would be unknown, he said, unless India made testing more accessible.

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