ISLAMABAD: Speakers at a discussion on Monday warned that Pakistan should protect its national interests over the Middle East crisis, and the country’s top priority should be economic security.

The talk titled ‘Changing Regional Security and Implications on US-Pakistan Relations’ was organised by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI).

Speakers were of the view that Pakistan must be mindful of its economic security which is the country’s top national interest and be careful taking sides or staying neutral in the current conflict between Iran and the US.

Research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School Department of National Security Affairs in Monterey, California Prof Feroz Hassan Khan said that given the precarious economic situation, unfortunately, Pakistan is not sovereign enough to make any independent decision to take sides or to stay neutral in the recent conflict between Iran and the US.

“Pakistan’s top national security issue and challenge is its economic security, without which the country would not be able to modernise its national security which is imperative for survival. Pakistan’s dependency on the [International Monetary Fund] programme, aid and financial assistance from Saudi Arabia, and [Financial Action Task Force] conditions are negatively affecting the country on the foreign policy front,” he said.

“The fraught situation in the Middle East is the ultimate test of Pakistan’s diplomacy,” Mr Khan added.

He urged the country to keep certain priorities, including continuing efforts in the Afghan peace process, preventing conflict or war with India and remaining relevant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by successfully implementing and completing the China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects.

He said those who support US President Donald Trump’s decision to kill the Iranian commander argued that the Soleimani’s assassination was an attempt by the US to re-establish deterrence to stop Iran from going beyond and crossing a red line.

He said there could be multiple reasons behind this killing including domestic politics in the US or Mr Trump’s impeachment. Regional security and power dynamics are changing and redefining, to which Pakistan must be mindful, he said.

He foretold three possible scenarios regarding Iran’s reaction: asymmetric warfare by Iran mainly using the Hezbollah card, a growing arms race in the region and thirdly, nuclear proliferation through Iran backing out of the nuclear deal.

“Anyone of these reactions would be a huge setback to international security, and certainly would have serious implications on Pakistan,” he said.

To a question on unilateralism by the US in the current Middle East crisis, Mr Khan said this is the era of strongmen who most of the time use power to suppress the opposition, which exactly what Mr Trump has done or Indian Prime

Minister Narendra Modi is doing in his own country and in India-held Kashmir.

To another question, he said Iran would remain in the Non-Proliferation Treaty as it has a limited capacity to conduct nuclear tests and continue to the path of its nuclear programme according to the treaty’s provisions.

SDPI Executive Director Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri said that while the situation in the Middle East is very concerning and worrisome, Pakistan has to be very careful this time while weighing its options over the current conflict between Iran and the US.

He said that Pakistan has to take care of its own interests first and try to play its role in de-escalating the situation to avert greater chaos in the region. Otherwise, in case of any further escalation or conflict, the whole region will pay a huge cost for decades to come.

Published in Dawn, January 7th, 2020