MUZAFFARABAD: The Institute of Geology of University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir has submitted a preliminary assessment to the AJK government after carrying out an integrated geological and geophysical study of the earthquake-affected area of Mirpur district, it was learnt on Thursday.

The study was conducted by a five-member team, comprising Prof Emeritus Dr Rustam Khan, Associate Prof and Director Geology Dr Mohammad Basharat, assistant professors Shahab Pervez and Dr Abrar Niaz and lecturer Fahad Hameed from Sept 27 to 30 on the request of the AJK government.

On Sept 24, an earthquake of 5.8 magnitude struck Mirpur city and adjoining areas at 4pm, followed by aftershocks with the most severe one of 4.8 magnitude.

The epicentre of the quake was 3km south of New Mirpur City and 19km north of Jhelum city at a focal depth of 10km.

Based on the present integrated geological and geophysical study, the team concluded that the Sept 24 earthquake had occurred as a result of movement along the reverse Jari Kass Fault.

AJK varsity submits assessment report about Sept 24 earthquake

A shallow blind fault line was also demarcated, suggesting that both the Jari Kass Fault Line and the Samwal Fault Line were the surface expression of this blind fault line, the team said, among many other technical findings.

In the recent past, low magnitude earthquakes had been reported in the Mirpur area after the upraising of Mangla reservoir. Therefore, there was a probability that the upraising might have increased the hydrostatic pressure that had been causing increase in strain accumulation, the team said.

In its recommendations, the team called for in-depth geological and geophysical studies to understand the fault mechanism and its precise location associated with the Sept 24 earthquake.

Geo-hazard microzonation should be conducted for Mirpur and adjoining areas, the team suggested, adding that the identification of highly hazardous and hazardous areas could assist land-use planners in identifying sites for future planning and development.

The team also urged the authorities concerned to reconstruct/relocate the Jatlan road, along the Upper Jhelum Canal, outside the area of lateral spreading.

Lateral spreading refers to landslides that commonly form on gentle slopes and that have rapid fluid-like flow movement, like water.

The structure associated with lateral spreading in the Jatlan area should be inspected by the structural engineers, the team said.

Underscoring the need of an awareness and evacuation plan for the earthquake affected area to avoid the human loss in future, it recommended that precise mapping of active fault lines in the region and proper monitoring of slip rates along these active fault lines should also be carried out.

The team further suggested installation of the dense global positioning system (GPS) network as well as dense seismic stations’ network to ascertain the ongoing deformation in the area and proper monitoring of the earthquakes, respectively.

It stressed that strain accumulation as a result of the Mangla reservoir needed to be properly monitored and building codes strictly implemented to avoid further loss in the earthquake-prone areas in future.

According to the director geology, his institute had also studied other fault lines in the AJK territory and of them the Riasi Thrust and Jhelum Fault Lines were tectonically very active and needed to be properly monitored.

Published in Dawn, October 19th, 2019