THERE have been several close calls in the Gulf over the past few months, as the US and Iran have crossed swords in the strategic waterway following Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal last year. Perhaps the closest call came when the Iranians shot down an American drone in June, which they said had intruded into their territory. This was followed by the seizure of an Iranian oil tanker by the UK in Gibraltar last month; Tehran struck back by seizing a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz a few days later. However, after this geopolitical high drama — much of it sparked by America’s policy of ‘maximum pressure’ — things seem to be calming down. One indication of this was the unexpected appearance of Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif at the G7 summit in France over the weekend. While the Americans said the Iranian top diplomat’s visit “was a surprise”, the French government indicated that Mr Zarif had been invited to the summit to “de-escalate the tensions and create breathing space for negotiations”.

The Europeans have, of course, been treading a more careful path on Iran, compared to the bellicosity coming out of the US. Perhaps they realise that if tensions give way to open war, the results could be disastrous for the global economy, and global peace. It will be interesting to see what follows the apparent peace overture. For their part, the Americans have appeared lukewarm and ambiguous about engaging Iran afresh. However, while the threat of immediate conflict in the Gulf may have been postponed for the time being, miscalculations by any of the parties involved can exacerbate matters very quickly. That is why it was a smart move on the part of the Europeans to invite Iran to the G7 conclave in France. From here on, there must be concrete efforts to de-escalate the crisis, beyond photo ops. For one, both the European states and the US must ease financial restrictions that are choking the Iranian economy. Once CBMs such as these take effect, the mood in Tehran — which has only hardened — may mellow and allow for constructive negotiations. As of now, Washington’s policy of ‘maximum pressure’ may lead to ‘maximum disaster’ in the Gulf and beyond. The need then is to prevent a new escalation, and re-establish the channels of dialogue.

Published in Dawn, August 27th, 2019