THE real test of the opposition’s resolve to launch an anti-government movement will come when the parties gathered under the multiparty conference (MPC) banner are able to replace Senate chairman Sadiq Sanjrani with their own ‘consensus’ candidate.

The decision was announced earlier this week in Islamabad at the end of the MPC hosted by JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman and was one among various moves that, he said, had been agreed upon by major political parties to bring pressure to bear on Prime Minister Imran Khan.

This opposition gathering, aimed at rattling the former World Cup-winning cricket captain, was taking place on a day when, in a dazzling display of cricket, Pakistan were forcing a win over New Zealand, the hitherto unbeaten team of the CWC19.

The only concrete manifestation of the opposition’s coming together was the decision to change the Senate chairman.

This is the very reason some observers were questioning the timing of the MPC and asking whether people would be interested in any political activity when there was an exciting match to watch. The answer to those critics came in the announcement of the agreement reached at the conference.

The opposition politicians, who had gathered earlier in such large numbers at PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari’s iftar last month, were not demanding anything urgently of their supporters. In fact, they agreed to start a mass contact campaign, an onerous task in itself given the blistering heat currently.

Beyond that, the leaders said they would observe a ‘black day’ on July 25, in about three weeks’ time, to mark the day, they said, a discredited election took place last year. Although little of this was said on record, many reporters, quoting unnamed sources, talked of differences at the conference.

For example, one report suggested that Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari opposed Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s proposal to launch street agitation right away because the PPP leader believed his party wanted to change the government and not jeopardise democracy.

Another report mentioned the same two leaders and claimed that when the JUI-F chief suggested that the opposition should agitate against the alleged offensive remarks about revered Muslim figures by Imran Khan, the PPP leader said he had no appetite for using the ‘religious card’ against anybody.

Thus, the only concrete manifestation of the opposition’s coming together was the decision to change the Senate chairman. In a sign of the times, the PPP, which played a major part in Sadiq Sanjrani’s ascension to office to the dismay of anti-establishment forces, backed his removal.

However, unless the MPC-proposed ‘rahbar committee’ is quickly formed and expeditiously reaches a consensus on a candidate, this matter too can find itself easily kicked into long grass. If that happens, the backers of the PTI and its government will draw strength from it.

Equally those in power will draw strength from the opposite directions in which two key PML-N leaders seem to be pulling their party. The charismatic daughter of the ousted, jailed prime minister Nawaz Sharif seems in no mood to compromise and appears eager to steam ahead with her hard-line stance.

In sharp contrast to Maryam Nawaz, Shahbaz Sharif, her uncle and the man her father chose to lead the party at least for now, remains confused between his own proclivity to compromise with power and his niece’s preferred path to take on all of PML-N’s adversaries no matter how powerful.

The relief given to Shahbaz Sharif, which enabled him to travel to London and spend several weeks away from the heat at home, whether sourced to climate change or the so-called process of accountability, did not help him clear his head.

Speaking on the budget in the National Assembly in his capacity as leader of the opposition, he offered the government, as had former president Asif Zardari before him, an olive branch, saying he was ready to negotiate a ‘meesaq-i-maeeshat’ (charter of economy)’.

Shahbaz Sharif’s proposal was stillborn. Within a short period, Maryam Nawaz told the media that any ‘meesaq-i-maeeshat’ was actually becoming a ‘mazaq-i-maeeshat’ (joke of the economy) at the hands of the ‘incompetent’ prime minister and his team. Hence, there was no need for it.

Despite these contradictions, it is also clear that the government onslaught on opposition leaders in the name of accountability in the case of the PML-N and PPP and supposed security concerns where the PTM members are concerned is driving them all into one corner.

Even then the opposition appears to be taking its time to have to come to an agreement and roll out a comprehensive strategy to take on the government. There may be two major reasons for this, the first having to do with the economy.

As we speak, the rupee seems to be in a headlong tumble against the dollar and, despite saying that the currency parity will be established in the market model and not via free float, the State Bank governor, the former IMF trouble-shooter Raza Baqir, has not intervened in the market.

The falling rupee will obviously stoke more inflation; as energy prices are going through the roof and those already in the direct tax net are being asked to pay more, anger is mounting. No matter what the government says the ‘austerity’ agreed with the IMF will hurt the shirtless the most.

In a contracting economy it is unrealistic to believe the jobless numbers will decrease; they can only go in one direction. The post-budget period starting next month will see many austerity measures bite. The opposition may well be waiting for public anger to get to boiling point before upping the ante.

The opposition leaders may also be mindful of other factors such as completion of the army chief’s tenure this coming November and may wish to wait and see what happens, ie whether the incumbent retires or is granted/ accepts/ refuses an extension.

They may also be factoring in the significance or otherwise of the changes at the top of the country’s premier intelligence agency. Sadiq Sanjrani’s fate would be the first indication of how the opposition is reading the situation.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, June 29th, 2019