Minutes before walking into the cinema hall where Chhalawa was about to have its premiere, Satish Anand and I were talking about the film’s business potential.

Anand, the head of Eveready Group and the co-distributor of the film with Hum Films, had precise figures in mind — as did I. Our predictions estimated that collectively Chhalawa and Wrong No. 2 would rake in 200 million rupees during the five-day Eidul Fitr run which, historically, has always been the tougher long holiday sell.

Eidul Azha, in comparison, has it easy. Those holidays, sliding backwards in the calendar each year because of Islamic dates, now land smack near the middle of August. For producers, this is hallelujah territory because Eidul Azha, this year, coincides with the Independence Day holiday; it’s like winning the lottery, over and over again.

To understand the dilemma for film distributors and, more specifically, the release strategy behind films, let’s take a gander at recent history.

Last year, three films had a field day at Eidul Azha — Jawani Phir Nahin Aani 2 (JPNA 2, 510 million rupees), Parwaaz Hai Junoon (PHJ, 362 million rupees) and Load Wedding (120 million rupees). Collectively, that’s nearly a billion rupees in the bank — or to put it another way, 250 million rupees of ticket sales per month for four months (two of the three titles, JPNA 2 and PHJ, ran until the end of the year).

Even with a low number of productions, Pakistan’s cinema industry keeps shooting itself in the foot with everyone trying to release their films in the same few calendar slots. Isn’t it time it changes its business model?

A year before, Punjab Nahin Jaungi and Na Maloom Afraad 2 looted the box-office (that time, Eid fell in September). The year before that, in 2016, the contenders were Actor In Law, Zindagi Kitni Haseen Hai, Janaan and Teri Meri Love Story. Out of all titles to come out in three years, only Love Story tanked.

Strategically, it makes sense. Make a film with star-power, cinematographically evoke a film-like feel (or something close to it), and even less-than-ideal titles make money during Eidul Azha.

Eidul Fitr is less kind. In 2016, Eidul Fitr had one Pakistani release — Sawaal 700 Crore Dollar Ka; the roster that year was dominated by Salman Khan’s Sultan and Hollywood releases Finding Dory, Ice Age 5, Legend of Tarzan and the Secret Life of Pets. Released by Eveready — a supporter of neophyte filmmakers (the studio also released Noor Bukhari’s Ishq Positive two weeks later) — Sawaal 700 Crore Dollar Ka’s doom was anticipated weeks before it came out.

The year 2017’s assembly included Yalghaar and Mehrunisa V Lub U — both adequate performers at the box-office, collectively grossing 200-250 million rupees, according to varying sources. Their success led to a rush the following year with 7 Din Mohabbat In, Azaadi, Na Band Na Baarati and Wajood — four less-than-ideal titles that were met with horrible reviews and even worse box-office scores. The performance of these four titles was directly proportional to their content — however, zooming away for a bigger picture, we see a pattern in the works.

There’s an increase in the numbers of releases every Eidul Fitr by a factor of two, from 2016 to 2018, before distributors scaled back to two titles, Chhalawa and Wrong No. 2, in 2019.

With an absence of Bollywood releases to rally big numbers during Eid, distributors are constantly strategising on what works at the box-office. Indian films, as regular cine-goers painfully know, are in a state of embargo by both Indian and Pakistani distributors; in previous years, they, at least, helped sustain regular footfalls during and after the holidays.

In spite of the bad economy, expensive ticket prices and meagre box-office collections, the country today has 166 screens in 65 locations (the figure corroborated by Mirza Saad Baig of Footprint Entertainment). As per our last tracking in early 2018, Pakistan had 139 screens. So consider the math for a second: with each cinema running five shows per day, at an average ticket price of 500 rupees and an average seating capacity of 167, we roughly get 830 shows per day from 166 screens. That’s a peak business of roughly over 69 million rupees per day. In the five day sold-out rush, exhibitors can gross 346 million rupees.

These business assumptions cloud even the sanest of minds. Producers or distributors only see the income the market is capable of generating, but not, necessarily, what individual films can generate. As a consequence, unwarranted additions of less-than-stellar titles are heaped on top of films that may perform adequately, if there were less competition.

We’ve already living through a case study this year with Chhalawa and Wrong No. 2. Both titles fulfilled basic requirements that compel people to fork out money at the box office window — namely, recognisable A-list actors, hummable songs, and the cinematic feel of a motion picture.

At the time of writing this piece, Chhalawa and Wrong No. 2 have grossed 118 million rupees and 110 million rupees, respectively, in five days, according to their producers. Satish Anand and my estimations had been right on target.

The remaining box-office is divided between The Secret Life of Pets 2, Godzilla and Aladdin. To maintain the health of a fledgling business, multiplexes should not accommodate more than five film titles at a time. The more diverse the release slate, the better.

The strategy is also effective for single screens that may run more than one title every day, such as Capri Cinema, and for three-screen multiplexes such as Atrium in Karachi. This approach also leaves room for worthwhile carry-over titles that may still be favoured by the audiences. Take Avengers: Endgame as an example. Endgame was released before Ramazan, and irrespective of having a field day at the box-office, still had the potential to scrape big bucks at Eid.

Audiences do not flock to see mundane films, and shows running half-empty of less-than-worthwhile films only damage overall box-office. The industry is acutely aware of the problems and solutions, but it is still thinking with blinders on.

Terribly aware of making bad box-office decisions, Eidul Azha still has four Pakistani titles ready for cut-throat competition: Parey Hut Love (PHL) from director Asim Raza, starring Sheheryar Munawar, Maya Ali and Mahira Khan (in a cameo), released by ARY Films; Superstar from producer Momina Durraid, starring Bilal Ashraf and Mahira Khan (this time in a lead role), released by Eveready and Hum Films; Heer Maan Ja (HMJ) from producer Imran Raza Kazmi and director Azfar Jafri, starring Hareem Farooq and Ali Rehman Khan, released by Distribution Club and Geo Films; and finally Kaaf Kangana, an ISPR co-production written and directed by Khalil-ur-Rehman Qamar, starring Sami Khan and Eshal Fayyaz, which, as per unconfirmed industry sources, has yet to find a distribution or media partner (industry murmurs indicate that Footprint, or its partnership Excellency Films, may pick up distribution of the film).

To reiterate the point: three films, like last year, may work, but four films are damaging for all — no matter which of the two Eid the films are released in.

PHL, ethically speaking, had first dibs on Eid; its release date was announced a year in advance. Second in line was HMJ. Superstar, although a late contender, also appears to have a sense of appeal.

If none of the four titles flinch from their release dates, then Hollywood releases may become involuntary casualties — and that is bad for business. Shutting out the Hollywood-watching audience, or limiting the number of international releases, is not a good sign, but it would have to be done to accommodate four titles, that potentially have equal standing.

This is far from a sensible solution.

Seeing the industry move in fits and starts is discouraging. While every Tom, Dick, and Harry seems to acknowledge the faults, no one is stepping up to change flawed aspects of the business. Everyone has a film to sell, and no one wants to take no for an answer.

Published in Dawn, ICON, June 16th, 2019

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