RELIGION influences voters’ choices for a variety of reasons, ranging from candidates’ perceived religious/moral character, to the enforcement of the Islamic order or system of governance. While religious-political parties highlight their largely religious agendas and credentials, to satisfy voters’ religious sensitivities other political parties, too, manifest a religious leaning — or at least don’t go against the prevailing religious standpoint on critical issues.

Religion, though, is only a part of what constitutes the majority of Pakistani voters’ choice spectrum. Had religion been among voters’ top priorities, the religious-political parties would have been a primary choice. But Pakistan’s electoral history shows that these parties have failed to impress voters to a significant extent. Mainstream parties, meanwhile, have broader agendas to attract voters, which are apparently as religious as their political constituency demands.

The electoral participation of groups like the ASWJ is everything except deradicalisation.

Indeed, the extent of religion in their manifestoes determines the political tendency of a party. During the last three decades, mainstream politics has mostly fluctuated between the right and the centre — only occasionally moving, though slightly, to the left when the PPP led the government in the 1990s and 2008. On the other end, the proliferation of far-right parties has been pushing voters towards the rightist and centrist parties.

The turf between the far right and right is mainly claimed by the traditional religious political parties, from the right to centre by the PML-N and the PTI, and from the centre to left by the PPP and ethnonationalist parties. In almost every general election, parties have largely formed alliances or supported each other on this orientation, with few exceptions. The 2018 elections won’t be different either, except for a few new developments.

Centralist politics seems fluid for the moment as anti-establishment sentiments are shaping a new discourse. On the other hand, new actors have entered the far-right domain, which is partly an outcome of the state’s counterterrorism strategy. Some among the new far right are being launched as part of a so-called mainstreaming and deradicalisation campaign. Other entrants are being seen as a substitute to the militant groups, but they are equally radical and largely depend on exploiting society’s religious and sectarian divides.

The new far right includes Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), Milli Muslim League (MML) (which is contesting the election from the platform of Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek), and old sectarian groups such as the banned Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), Sunni Tehreek and Majlis-i-Wahdatul Muslimeen, etc. Many small groups are also part of this cluster. Most of these actors are seen as spoilers, ie they can do some damage to mainstream parties and change the results in a few constituencies. The new far-right actors have diminished the bargaining prospects of smaller religious parties like the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (Samiul Haq faction) and factions of the Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan.

As far as the mainstreaming of the MML and ASWJ through political participation is concerned, it could prove a risky plan. After the National Action Plan was launched, the banned groups had come under pressure. But their participation in elections has provided them with space to breathe. For instance, the MML sees in it an opportunity to build its soft image both domestically and internationally. It has given 13 tickets to female candidates and engaged religious minorities to run their electoral campaigns. For ASWJ, which is contesting elections from the platform of the Rah-i-Haq Party while its head is contesting as an independent candidate, participating in the election is an opportunity to regain its lost space. Their participation in the election is indeed everything except deradicalisation.

Interestingly, traditional religious political parties that have reunited under the platform of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal are trying to keep their distance from the far right, but at the same time presenting themselves as the only potent shield against the liberal and secular forces in the country. This is a political tactic to keep their conservative vote bank in Balochistan and KP intact, and to challenge their electoral rivals ie the mainstream political parties. However, the MMA is also eying a share in the future government, manifesting the art of political pragmatism mastered by MMA chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman.

In the 2013 election, centre-right parties (mainly the PML-N and PTI) were concerned about the Pakistani Taliban movement and both had promised peace talks with them in their electoral campaigns. This allowed them the freedom to run their electoral campaigns across the country without any terrorist threat. On the other hand, the PPP and ANP, which fought against the militants, were brutally targeted by the Pakistani Taliban. However, in 2018, mainstream parties are concerned with the TLP factor. The use of religion by the mainstream parties is not a new phenomenon in Pakistani politics; however, the recent spiritual transformation of Imran Khan also has political mileage. The PTI knows the consequences of vote banks crumbling, and a spiritually transformed leader can stop this erosion and attract the voters towards the party.

The PML-N has emerged with different electoral credentials in this election as its campaign is based on two narratives; the first being anti-establishment and the second development. Among religion-based actors, it sees the MMA as its partner but, at the same time, the PML-N’s image as a more centrist than right-wing party is also developing.

Though the political parties are using religion and religion-based actors for their electoral successes, very few are talking about the threat of extremism and terrorism. Not a single party has presented any plan or strategy to deal with extremism. The terrorist attacks in recent days, in which over 150 people including two political candidates were killed, is an indication that the threat of terrorism still looms large. Silence on this critical issue will only further expand the turfs of the far right and their radical agendas.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, July 15th, 2018