LAHORE: The Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) on Sunday expected rains that could be heavy at places over the catchments of the three eastern rivers and northeastern Punjab from July 12, saying the downpours could increase the Chenab flow.

“Lahore too is likely to receive rain. It may be heavy at times but not as torrential as it was on Tuesday last. The flow in the Chenab will increase but there is no danger of any flooding,” said FFD Director Riaz Khan.

Torrential rain in Lahore on Tuesday last had paralysed the city, claiming at least 13 lives in its 36-hour spell. Heavy rain was also recorded in many other cities in Punjab and Sindh.

The moist current from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal that had generated rain in Lahore and elsewhere in the country had changed its direction to South Punjab on Wednesday. Since then it has been hot and humid in the city.

The FFD expects that the moist current will re-curve to the original monsoon path -- northeast Punjab and catchments of the eastern rivers Sutlej, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum -- from Monday (today). A trough of westerly wave over northeast Afghanistan is also expected to enter Pakistan by Tuesday to convert this moisture from the sea into rain with its coldness.

The FFD has already forecast beginning of the third monsoon spell from Tuesday.

Mr Khan said the spell would start with scattered light rain on Tuesday. But it is likely to gain strength from July 12 and remain active for the next at least two days. There are chances of moderate rainfall with heavy falls at the upper catchments of the rivers Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab during the period. The immediate impact will be on the Chenab whose flow will increase.

Since India has dams over the Sutlej and the Ravi, there are no chances of the increase in their flow.

Mr Khan said the cities on the monsoon path including Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Gujrat and Faisalabad will also have rain which may be heavy at times. As per calculations on Sunday, rain in Lahore will nevertheless not be as torrential as it was on Tuesday last.

Mr Khan said the exact information of any urban flooding could be given by the latest developments on Monday.

Meanwhile, it remained hot and humid in most plain areas in the country on Sunday. Lahore’s maximum temperature was 39 degrees C but the heat index was much more because of the mugginess.

The maximum temperature in Multan was 41 degrees C and in Faisalabad 40 degrees C. And this too created suffocating weather conditions in the presence of high humidity in the air.

The FFD said the river Kabul at Nowshera was in low flood and all other major rivers were flowing normally.

Published in Dawn, July 9th, 2018