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TEL AVIV: New eras in Middle East peacemaking have never been noted for long lifespans. Three months after Israelis and Palestinians agreed a ceasefire, the latest new start shows signs of drifting into an old pattern of broken promises and mutual recriminations, analysts say. Even assuming the truce holds, the problems bode ill for prospects of negotiations after Israel completes its “disengagement” plan to quit the occupied Gaza Strip in a few months.
“If we all hold our breath, we may get through disengagement with the ceasefire intact,” said Israeli analyst Yossi Alpher. “There is no peace process.” The latest warning sign came when Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon put a brake at the weekend on a promised release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
That followed a decision to suspend handing over security control in three West Bank cities until President Mahmoud Abbas moves to disarm militant groups. For their part, the Palestinians accuse Israel of bad faith for delaying pledges made at the ceasefire summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Feb 8, three months after the death of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat.
Militant groups talk of reviewing their truce if the promises are not met and if Israel continues raids, which the army says target “ticking bombs” planning attacks.
“If it continues like that we will get very soon back to the cycle of violence,” said Bassam Eid of the Palestinian Human Rights Monitoring Group.
CONCERNS: Aides to Sharon say that as well as striking a tough pose for his domestic audience, he is concerned that a failure by Abbas to disarm the militants could raise the threat to the Gaza withdrawal.
But Abbas needs the release of the prisoners and Israeli pullbacks in the West Bank to show Palestinians — particularly the militants — that there is a reward for stopping a 4- 1/2-year-old uprising.
“I think without serious third party intervention, things will continue being stuck,” said Eid. Washington emphasises its support for Abbas, despite the Israeli doubts, and the Palestinian leader is due to visit the White House later this month.
But it is far from clear how much pressure the United States could apply on its Israeli ally, especially as Sharon withdraws settlers from Gaza in the face of continued right-wing opposition to the US-supported plan.
“They’re not really worried by any real pressure from the Bush administration,” said Turi Munthe of London’s Royal United Services Institute.
Talk of a meeting with Sharon to clear up the difficulties before Abbas heads to Washington have so far come to nothing.
TOUGHER ISSUES: The problems getting Israelis and Palestinians to agree ahead of the planned withdrawal from all the Gaza settlements and four of 120 in the West Bank look small compared to what may follow, though.
Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, wants to see quick progress on an internationally-backed “roadmap” to a viable state and not just the opportunity to rule the Gaza Strip and a few fragments of the West Bank.
Sharon will be in no rush and is determined to keep Israel’s hold on the major West Bank settlement blocs. He has often repeated that there will be no negotiations on statehood until Abbas dismantles militant groups.
“After disengagement is completed, the divide between Sharon’s political vision, a long-term interim arrangement, and Abu Mazen’s political vision, a comprehensive agreement, will be much more obvious,” said Rob Malley of the International Crisis Group think tank.
By then, the main Islamic militant group Hamas could be an even bigger part of the equation too. Local elections have shown the growing political strength of the group sworn to destroying Israel. A similar showing in upcoming parliamentary elections could put it in a position to obstruct anyone’s peace moves.—Reuters
