THE Asia and Pacific Seed Association (APSA) expects the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to be a key driver of Pakistan’s agriculture sector in the coming decade.

The multibillion-dollar megaproject includes demonstration plots where high-yielding seed varieties will be developed on some 6,500 acres of agricultural land, which will be acquired by the government of Pakistan and leased out to Chinese breeding companies, the seed association says.

Quality seeds play a significant role in boosting agricultural productivity, giving a much needed uplift to farmers. The farmers’ access and affordability on the one hand and the availability and adequacy of desired quality seeds on the other formulate a demand-supply scenario in the seed system.

Many indicators point towards a bright future for the Pakistani seed industry, especially considering that domestic consumer trends have started to show a preference for high-quality, domestically produced seeds.

One key advantage of Pakistani seeds is their relatively cheaper prices on the regional market, especially when compared to counterparts from Thailand, China and India.

Though the world’s sixth-most populous country has consistently been a net importer of sowing seeds in terms of value, it has achieved trade surpluses for specific types of seed, including that of wheat, barley, cotton and herbaceous flowering plants.

Still, its dependence on foreign seed supplies remains high. In 2016, the country logged a seed trade deficit of $549.62 million, deriving from $560m worth of imports and a little more than $10m exports.

But when measuring the volume of the movement of seed to and from Pakistan, the books are more balanced.

According to figures used by the APSA, Pakistan imported last year no less than 422,203 tonnes of sowing seed valued at $560m. These figures are anomalous, considering that the country typically only imports a tiny fraction of this amount.

In 2012 and 2013, the country actually exported more seed than it imported, leading to a surplus of more than 10,000 tonnes during the two years.

An analysis of the figures reveals that a majority of the imported sowing seed last year were soya beans (78 per cent). This was followed by coriander (4pc), maize (4pc) and paddy (3pc).

From not importing any sowing soya in 2012 and 2013, the country began logging notable imports of this type of seed in 2014 when it imported 6,541 tonnes (costing about $6.5m).

In 2015, the volume of soya seed imports surged by more than 60 times to 400,387 tonnes ($247.9m).

Though the volume of soya seed imports dropped 16pc year-on-year to 332,808 tonnes in 2016, the value rose by 54pc to $383.4m. More than half of the seeds came from Brazil, while the rest came mostly from the United States (32pc) and Canada (14pc).

One key advantage of Pakistani seeds is their relatively cheap prices on the regional market, especially when compared to counterparts from Thailand, China and India

Pakistan still heavily depends on foreign vegetable seeds, too, and imported 3,111 tonnes ($37.9m) last year.

Growth in imports for three main types of vegetable seeds has been stagnant lately compared to other types of vegetables.

In 2016, the volume of vegetable seed imports grew 2.3pc year-on-year to 3,107 tonnes, while the value rose by 15pc.

Exports recovering

Pakistan’s seed exports suffered immensely in 2014, plummeting by 72pc in volume and 41pc in value as compared to the preceding year.

The sharp downtrend continued in 2015, as the exports nosedived by 73pc year-on-year in volume and 57pc in value.

Drought and flooding were key factors in the lost productivity. Seed consignments affected the most were cotton, barley, maize, paddy, various forage plants and most types of vegetable seeds.

Following the woes of 2014 and 2015, the industry experienced a sharp rebound in 2016, with sowing seed exports growing 123pc year-on-year in volume and 59pc in value (12,872 tonnes worth $10.6m).

In terms of volume, the strongest performing categories were cotton (593pc increase at 10,900 tonnes) and ryegrass (512pc increase at 877,940 tonnes), in addition to paddy (25,000 tonnes) and soya (5,000 tonnes), neither of which were exported in 2015.

Major rebounders in terms of value included durum wheat (319pc increase at $33.2m) and herbaceous flowering plants (190pc increase at $612,000).

Pakistan’s vegetable seed export sector is relatively small, accounting for only $595,000 of the country’s total $88m of sowing seeds exported between 2012 and 2016.

Indeed, the 52 tonnes of vegetable seed exported from Pakistan last year were worth just $121,000 on the books, barely 1pc of all sowing seed exported from the country.

But the APSA expects the market offers a growth potential.

Pakistan’s main buyers of vegetable seed last year were Oman (24pc of the volume), Bahrain (13pc), Spain (13pc), Nigeria (11pc), Australia (11pc, India (10pc) and Ethiopia (8pc).

And at least in the case of Oman, Bahrain, Nigeria and Australia, we had a vegetable seed trade surplus.

A report of the Agricultural Innovative Programme (AIP) for Pakistan says the promulgation of seed amendment bill of 2014 will bring discipline in the seed industry by helping increase penalties and fines, register seed dealers and seed-processing units, discourage the misbranding of seed, and permit the availability of pre-basic and basic seeds to the private sector.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December 25th, 2017