US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s recent visit to Pakistan has inevitably brought US policy towards the region into sharper focus. Tillerson’s visit has followed a period in which the US President Donald Trump has publicly warned Pakistan over Afghanistan and alleged militant infiltration from its tribal areas. So it is little surprise that Tillerson’s visit is being carefully analysed to discern if the US motives and intent match its rhetoric.

Rex Tillerson didn’t just visit Pakistan. He visited Kabul first and from Islamabad went to Delhi as well. That in itself tells us that US policy in the region is really now the sum total of Afghanistan, India and Pakistan; in the case of India and Pakistan it has become a zero sum game where someone will lose. This is not really a surprise and has, in fact, been an open secret for several years. America has been openly encouraging India to play a greater role in Afghanistan for some time now.

US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley piled on the pressure against Pakistan on the eve of Tillerson’s visit saying, “America’s overriding interest in Afghanistan and throughout South Asia is to eliminate terrorist havens that threaten us. And to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists, we will use all the elements of our national power, economic diplomatic and military to pursue these goals ... . We are really going to need India’s help in Afghanistan. They are good neighbours that we have in the region. So, having them helps not only with infrastructure and the aide that they can give towards rebuilding Afghanistan, [they can] also help us to keep an eye on Pakistan.” That is certainly an oversimplification of America’s interests — gaining influence over Central Asia’s oil and gas is surely something that has not escaped American attention or the fact that it wants to contain Chinese ambitions in the region. Yet with India, the American desire to build an enduring strategic relationship could not be clearer.

Despite its ‘do more’ mantra, America needs Pakistan to continue its operations in Afghanistan

This indeed is a blow for Pakistan — “keeping an eye on Pakistan” is almost casting Pakistan as a potential enemy. Rather than acknowledging Pakistan’s vast political and military investment in the American project in the region over the last 16 years [that by Pakistan’s reckoning has seen over 80,000 Pakistanis killed, more than 121 billion dollars lost and a serious domestic political backlash], America has now decided to make India the centrepiece of its South Asian strategy. In 2001, explaining his decision to join the US ‘War on Terror’ General Pervez Musharraf had argued that Pakistan had to co-operate with America, otherwise Pakistan would find the Americans joining hands with India at Pakistan’s expense. Well, that has happened anyway and Pakistan is sending its troops to fight, while without lifting a finger, India is getting all the American kudos and gratitude. One has to ask: how has Pakistan ended up in this position?

Whilst America embraces India at the expense of Pakistan, America has not finished with telling Pakistan to do more, in fact a lot more. Tillerson set his theme for Pakistan when he landed in Kabul, outlining the conditions for a future relationship with America saying, “It will be based upon whether they [Pakistan] take action that we feel is necessary to move the process forward for both creating opportunity for reconciliation and peace in Afghanistan but also ensuring a stable future Pakistan.”

Despite all the tough talk about defeating the Taliban emanating from Washington over the last few months Tillerson effectively extended an olive branch to the Taliban saying, “Clearly, we have to continue the fight against the Taliban and against others in order for them to understand they will never win a military victory. And there are, we believe, moderate voices among the Taliban — voices that do not want to continue to fight forever. They don’t want their children to fight forever. We are looking to engage with those voices and have them engage in a reconciliation process leading to a peace process and their full involvement and participation in the government.”

Maybe the realisation of the true American position dawned upon Tillerson as he was forced to sit in a windowless bunker on Bagram airbase with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, unable to make the short trip to the Afghan presidential palace, instigating his impromptu invite.

Yet preceding Tillerson’s imminent arrival, there was an upsurge in US drone strikes on Afghan territory bordering Pakistan that killed 31 people. Given uncertainty as to whether any drone strikes landed in Pakistan, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif was somewhat rattled with the confusion, arguing that the Afghan-Pakistan border was too difficult to determine whether any strikes had landed in Pakistan territory or not. This was despite other junior Pakistani government officials being much more confident in stressing the importance of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territory. Indeed it is remarkable that with Pakistan having contributed so heavily to the American war effort, Pakistani ministers continue to appear reluctant and hesitant to stress the importance of Pakistan as a sovereign state and to entertain any criticism of the US in its unruly behaviour across the border.

Clearly the embarrassment to Pakistan’s government continues to grow with every such incident.

In Islamabad, Tillerson opened his awkward visit by remarking in front of Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif and COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa that “Pakistan is important, as you know, regionally to US security relationships and so important regionally to our joint goals of providing peace and security to the region and providing opportunity for a greater economic relationship as well.” Prime Minister Abbasi, in turn, gave his own re-assurance, saying, “The US can rest assured that we are strategic partners in the war against terror and that today Pakistan is fighting the largest war in the world against terror.”

Prime Minister Abbasi’s response was bewildering. He did not forcefully rebut the crescendo of American allegations regarding Pakistan deliberately harbouring terrorists. Neither did he take the opportunity to hold Tillerson to account for America now openly supporting India at Pakistan’s expense in Afghanistan. Instead we had the spectacle of Pakistani officials including army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa having to go through the motions of welcoming the American Secretary of State who only a few hours ago could not even leave Bagram airbase because of his fear of a few thousand Taliban. Yet, having threatened nuclear armed Pakistan over the last few weeks, Tillerson strode into the Prime Minister’s residence with overriding self-assurance. It was as if something was badly amiss.

At the conclusion of his four-hour visit, Tillerson swiftly departed for India. In New Delhi he was warmly feted by India’s Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and then by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Swaraj used the opportunity to attack Pakistan saying, “We agreed that Pakistan should take immediate steps to dismantle safe havens which have been established there for terrorist groups. We believe that effective action by Pakistan against all terrorist groups without distinction is critical to the success of the new strategy of President Trump… Secretary Tillerson and I agreed that we will have to work closely to ensure that no country provides safe havens for terrorists; and those countries which provide support to terrorists or use terrorism are held accountable.”

Tillerson did not contradict the Indian foreign minister, showing that both ministers were talking from the same page. Tillerson added, “We had a frank exchange on concerns. There are too many terror organisations which find a safe place in Pakistan. We extended to Pakistan certain expectations that we had. We are attempting to put in place a cooperation mechanism, not just on information sharing but also action — to deny them ability to launch attacks against other countries.” This must have been like music to Indian ears. After years of relentless Indian allegations to deflect from its brutal Kashmir occupation, here was vindication in the form of American acknowledgement. Tillerson not only failed to address the issue of Kashmir and the Indian occupation that has killed and injured so many over the last 70 years, he effectively endorsed India’s position. Whatever Pakistan’s foreign policy planners thought they could achieve with their American relationship, the outcome could not be much worse than this.

Indian belligerence has continued to grow because it can sense the weakness in Pakistan’s posture. The Hindu has reported that Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa has offered to resolve and provide India trade access through Pakistan under the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA). If true, such offers are only helping to undermine Pakistan since peace cannot be negotiated from a position of weakness and Indian threats. Such is the perceived Pakistani weakness that even Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has now had the guts to say that no access to Central Asia would be allowed under CPEC unless India was also allowed trade access through Pakistan.

The warm relationship developing between India and America is not surprising at all and represents a growing and grave threat to Pakistan. Whilst Tillerson was in Pakistan it was no coincidence that after meeting Tillerson Afghan President Ashraf Ghani swiftly departed for New Delhi the next day to meet with Indian Prime Minister Modi. With America asking for India to be involved in Afghanistan, Pakistan is now facing the threat of Indian encirclement on both sides of its terrestrial borders. The reason for this is not difficult to understand.

Prior to his arrival in the region Tillerson carefully set the tone; in a speech on October 18 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Tillerson declared, “The Trump administration is determined to dramatically deepen ways for the United States and India to further this partnership. China, while rising alongside India, has done so less responsibly, at times undermining the international, rules-based order even as countries like India operate within a framework that protects other nations’ sovereignty. China’s provocative actions in the South China Sea directly challenge the international law and norms that the United States and India both stand for.”

Such American statements show that it is America that is actively trying to woo India in its growing containment strategy towards China. It makes it crystal clear that for America in South Asia the issue is not just about Afghanistan; America is deeply concerned about its rising strategic competitor, China. It is also clear that America seeks a closer relationship with India in order to deal with China. All of this is adding up to Pakistan’s detriment, especially with its meek and impassive attitude to American policy. The relegation of the Kashmir dispute in favour of India and the constant pressure on Pakistan to carry out more internal military operations in pursuit of American policy objectives shows that Pakistan has somehow lost the plot along the way.

Well, that has happened anyway and Pakistan is sending its troops to fight, while without lifting a finger, India is getting all the American kudos and gratitude. One has to ask: how has Pakistan ended up in this position?

Yet the reality is that the new found American penchant for India does not actually demonstrate its strength; on the contrary, it reveals its growing weakness. The great powers in history have shown that they are capable of determining events through both their political skill as well as their own economic and military capabilities. This is why the British Empire, at its height, was able to control the subcontinent and assert itself in China during the Opium Wars as well as elsewhere around the world. It did not ask the natives to “do more” to secure its colonial occupation — it physically did this itself even though it lost in Afghanistan and eventually had to relinquish its crown jewel of India. A measure of a great power is not in its net worth of military assets but in its effectiveness to control events. By asking the Pakistani military to carry its fight in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, America is trying to get the job done on the cheap.

Having pressured Pakistan to end its alleged support for terrorist havens, Tillerson finished his address in India by giving an unusual statement: “As these terrorist organisations have enlarged their numbers and have enlarged their strength and their capability within Pakistan’s borders, this can lead to a threat to Pakistan’s own stability. It is not in anyone’s interest that the government of Pakistan be destabilised.” Does Tillerson not realise that by him and his president publically lecturing and threatening Pakistan, that is actually the most corrosive and destabilising thing that could happen to the Pakistani government? Surely he must understand this, so why continue issuing such statements? Moreover, why does the Pakistani government continue to cooperate and yet tolerate such bullying public rhetoric and bias towards India? It is as if Pakistan does not want to be seen to be co-operating with America whilst it actually continues to provide that support behind closed doors. This would explain, for example, the tolerance for continuing US drone strikes on Pakistani territory. It seems that Americans are providing verbal cover for Pakistani public consumption to avoid a domestic backlash.

Whatever the private American and Pakistani thinking, it is imperative that Pakistan reviews its continued support for the American occupation in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to remember that it is America that is in need, not the other way around. American aid has been largely used to cover the costs of Pakistan deploying 200,000 troops and conducting military operations in the tribal areas. The US is desperate to get a deal with the Taliban so that it can start building the gas and oil pipelines in the region. Most importantly, it would cut its costs of the 16-year war and end the negative domestic political fallout.

Moreover, Pakistan’s political and military leadership needs to start pushing back against the American rhetoric. It is Pakistani troops that are killing and being killed in the tribal areas, not American or even Indian. India is the aggressive regional hegemon, yet has become the direct beneficiary of American policy. Without Pakistani supply lines, America would find it almost impossible to stay in Afghanistan no matter how much the Indians may wish to help the Americans. Pakistan needs to recalibrate its strategy and that too urgently; because the next installment of the Pakistan “do more” saga is imminent with the arrival of US Defence Secretary James Mattis next.

The writer is an academic with expertise in Middle Eastern and South Asian politics, with years of lecturing experience in various countries. At the moment he is a senior researcher at a Gulf-based think tank.
He tweets @mk_zahid

Published in Dawn, EOS, November 12th, 2017