THE first shadow has already been cast on the forthcoming general elections as a mysterious deadlock has surfaced among three large political parties over delimitation of constituencies in light of the new census. At issue are three interconnected concerns that are foundational to the conduct of an election. First, the law requires that constituencies be demarcated on the basis of the latest census data, so a comprehensive delimitation exercise has to be undertaken to redraw the constituency map across the board. The ECP has made it clear it needs to have the powers to begin the exercise latest by Nov 10 so that it can be completed by April. This is crucial because after this, electoral rolls need to be drawn up and the filing of nomination papers of candidates needs to commence if the 2018 general election schedule is to be met. Any procrastination with regard to these core tasks that lie at the heart of the electoral exercise could lead to a delay in the general election itself, creating profound uncertainty in the country.

Next to the delimitation exercise, and intimately connected to it, is the question of the total number of seats in parliament and the seat shares belonging to each province. Going by the provisional census data released thus far, Punjab is set to lose nine seats in the National Assembly, while KP will gain five, Balochistan three and Islamabad one; Sindh’s share stays constant. This is potent political arithmetic. Thus far, the only thing the leading political parties have managed to agree on is keeping the total number of seats in parliament constant. Beyond that, the Sindh-based parties are contesting the census results, arguing that large-scale undercounting has taken place in their province. And the Election Bill 2017, which must become law to kick-start the process of delimitation, fell prey to a deadlock in the National Assembly on the day that it was introduced.

The deadlock is surprising because it came after two days of consultations among the various parliamentary parties, led by the speaker, during which a consensus was reached. But on the day the bill was introduced, and when it was supposed to be passed, the Assembly had sparse attendance, and at least two of the main parties — the PPP and MQM — had a change of heart, saying they no longer supported the bill. On the second day of debate, attendance was even sparser, and no effort worth its name was expended to break the deadlock. It seems the ruling party has also lost its enthusiasm for the bill as much as the opposition parties from Sindh. Unless this situation changes immediately, and at the moment there are few signs that it will, the forthcoming election schedule could well hang in the balance.

Published in Dawn, November 4th, 2017