GLOBAL media networks are headlining breathlessly with reports on the German national elections on September 24. But unlike the Dutch and French polls earlier this year, the German elections have so far solicited only mild commentary in European Union policy circles. That may change, however.

True, both lead candidates in the German polls, Chancellor Angela Merkel (Christian Democrat-CDU) and Martin Schulz (Social Democrats-SPD) are stalwartly pro-European. And in any case there are convincing signs that the much-respected Merkel is set to win the rather desultory electoral match between the two mainstream parties.

The focus, instead is on just what kind of coalition Merkel will forge this time around: will she continue the “grand coalition” with the SDP or opt instead to rule with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) or the Greens, or both?

But, even as Merkel looks set to sail to victory, Germany’s political landscape is changing in unexpected and potentially dangerous ways.

Opinion polls suggest that the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party set up four years ago in protest at Merkel’s pro-European policies, will join the Bundestag with about 50 seats, the first time that a nationalist far right party has sat in the German parliament since World War II.

If these figures hold, the AfD would become the third-largest party in the lower house behind the CDU and SPD. In fact, if Merkel’s CDU combines with the SDP to form another grand coalition in this parliament, the AfD will be the leading opposition party in the Bundestag.

The party failed to win the five per cent of the national vote needed to get into the Bundestag four years ago but has been capturing votes in state elections since then. It now has representation in 13 of Germany’s 16 devolved parliaments.

The party’s initial anger was directed at Merkel for agreeing to bail out struggling southern economies such as Greece. Since then, the Eurosceptic stance has morphed into a nasty racist, anti-Muslim and xenophobic manifesto which includes pledges to close the European Union’s external borders, end all foreign funding of mosques in Germany and ban the full Islamic face veil.

Analysts say the party had been discredited by a spate of scandals and internal quarrels but secured a new lease of life after Merkel opened the door to almost one million refugees in a dramatic humanitarian move in 2015.

Alexander Gauland, one of the AfD’s two leading candidates in this election, says: “Islam does not belong to Germany…we’re gradually becoming foreigners in our own country.”

AfD’s expected success in Sunday’s election should be a sobering wake-up call for European politicians and policymakers, who were relieved at being able to hold back the tidal wave of populism which feared to engulf the Netherlands and France in elections held earlier this year.

The erratic performance of US President Donald Trump — a hero for most European far right populists — and the post-Brexit chaos in Britain also appeared to have taken the wind out of the sails of Europe’s populists.

But the battle has not been won. Europe’s mainstream politicians will be further tested in legislative elections in Austria on October 15 and expected polls in Italy.

The German elections signal a bitter fact: Europe’s far right populists are now a part of the continent’s political landscape. They have financial resources and powerful domestic and foreign backers. Clearly there are also many in Europe who genuinely feel they are globalisation’s losers and/or are inherently ethno-nationalist and fall prey to the populists’ simplistic solutions and misleading slogans.

The populists may be here to stay. But their power and attraction can be contained and even diminished.

So far, for some mainstream politicians, the fight-back has meant embracing the populists’ anti-foreigner and Islamophobic rhetoric. This was the case in the Netherlands and in Britain. Others like French president Emmanuel Macron have taken the more courageous route of speaking out in favour of more inclusive and diverse societies.

It’s time now to go further. European leaders, including Merkel, must use the coming years to forge new and convincing policies to manage Europe’s migration challenge by creating credible and realistic legal pathways for migrants.

Although the number of refugee and migrant arrivals in Europe has decreased, attitudes towards immigration have become more negative in many countries amid fears of terrorism and rising signs of discrimination against migrants, especially Muslims.

The sentiments are unlikely to change unless there is a concerted effort by politicians, business leaders, academics and civil society representatives to replace the discourse of fear and prejudice with a more hopeful narrative on migration.

They can find some support in a recent report by the European Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) which says that “the vast majority of Muslims in the EU have a high sense of trust in democratic institutions despite experiencing widespread discrimination and harassment”.

“The survey makes a mockery of the claim that Muslims aren’t integrated into our societies,” according to Michael O’Flaherty, FRA director.

EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans has vowed that the European Commission “will not tolerate intolerance. It goes against our values and our laws”.

Such words are encouraging of course. New policies and actions by the EU institutions and member states would be even better and very useful.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, September 23rd, 2017