Last week the rupee tumbled, and yet the currency market did not panic. The stock market has shed 5,768 points since May 31, with billions of rupees evaporated, but the losses have been endured quietly.

The business community tracked JIT developments closely but despite this possible threat to the stability of the political system it does not appear to be particularly nervous.

Can this cool be interpreted as the growing maturity of the private sector of Pakistan? Have they accepted political uncertainties as a certainty and adjusted accordingly?

Why does the PML-N leadership that revived the GDP growth rate not enjoy the active support of the business community? Is the class too preoccupied with some other set of problems to care about the JIT or its outcome?

The writer reached out to top business leaders in Karachi and Lahore to seek their views on the questions raised. The position adopted by traders and manufacturers varied, with the former more vocal in defence of the sitting government.

A top textile tycoon explained that under the current government the tilt in the policy framework has become more pronounced, with manufacturers and exporters not being extended the support they require to compete locally and globally.

The position adopted by traders and manufacturers varied, with the former more vocal in defence of the sitting government

The falling exports and squeezing margins did not allow them to invest in expansion and modernisation, while traders multiplied their fortunes on consumption-led growth.

The community had already factored in the volatility of the markets in the wake of political uncertainty in an election year. Besides, despite noisy debate, they did not expect a major disruption in the system at this point, whatever the outcome of the JIT.

Most leaders were not in favour of extra-constitutional solutions.

“Though we get better access to the corridors of power under a Martial Law, and economic management improves, military rule always ends violently, wiping out much of the gains. All said and done direct rule is unsustainable in this country”, commented a businessman with interests in the cement and power sectors.

Ehsan Malik, CEO of the Pakistan Business Council, confirmed the absence of nervousness in business circles. “Over time, people have gotten used to political polemics. Close to the election political debate dominates public discourse everywhere,” he said. “Many of our members in the fast-moving consumer goods, auto, cement, fertiliser and power sectors are doing well but can do better if long-standing issues of tax anomalies and tax refunds could be addressed promptly.”

As much the PML-N leadership liked to hinge Pakistan’s future to its own, the private sector was not convinced. “We hope that the case and the JIT will increase respect for the rule of law by power-wielders. In the case of Nawaz’s removal from office the PML-N should re-elect another parliamentary leader and complete its term,” said another leader.

Shabir Ahmed, a textile exporter, said, “My circles are utterly disappointed with the Sharif brothers. They proved to be self-centred, insensitive and very arrogant. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif shouldn’t have vested so much power in Finance Minister Ishaq Dar who allowed the textile base of the country to erode at a big cost to the economy.”

“We are fighting a battle for survival,” another exporter said, flashing photos of ongoing protests by textile mill owners in Punjab.

Azhar Majid, an industry leader from Faisalabad, said: “The textile sector has been warning the government about slippage in exports but the relevant people have been too busy to pay attention. Now the trade deficit of $33bn is compromising external sustainability. “Even today if the government moves to address long-standing issues related to a higher cost of production compared to our competitors, the textile industry of Pakistan has the potential to scale-up exports by billions of dollars on its own by commissioning idle capacity.”

Majyd Aziz, former president Karachi Chamber, believed that for the business community the JIT was a side topic. He did not expect too strong a reaction from corporate Pakistan even if the JIT decides against the premier. “Despite unending theatrics in the political arena and TV studios the fact is that donors trust Pakistan better today than ever before. New loans are contracted at favourable terms and cheaper interest rates”, he said.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, July 10th, 2017