SOMETHING strange is happening on the British political landscape: while one opinion poll is showing the Labour Party just three points behind the Conservatives, others indicate a gap of 10-12pc. So what explains this wide divergence?

For answers, we will have to go back to the 2015 general election, as well as last year’s Brexit referendum. In both, the polls were proven totally wrong as the pollsters had predicted a hung parliament in 2105 and a defeat for Brexit in the referendum. With so much egg on their faces, major polling firms reviewed their methodology, and came to the conclusion that they had overstated the Labour and Remain vote by taking young voters at their word when they declared their intention to actually go to polling stations. In the event, many failed to do so, thereby skewing the projections.

As a consequence, the pollsters’ umbrella body decided to use the turnout percentage of young voters in the last election as the benchmark for the next one. However, YouGov has broken ranks and continues to accept voting intentions as stated by youthful cohorts. Thus, they give the Tories a lead of just 3pc, while ICM has them ahead by 10pc. According to one conspiracy theory, the Tories are deliberately overstating Labour’s chances in order to motivate Tory supporters to vote.

We will have to wait till June 9 to see who was right, even though Jeremy Corbyn has given young people many reasons to go out and vote. For one, the Labour manifesto declares the party’s intention of providing free university education. This should be very popular with the young as currently, graduates often have student loans of up to 50,000 pounds when they leave universities. And at today’s low salaries and paucity of appropriate jobs, it is doubtful that all of them will ever be able to repay their liabilities.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, offer little to the young beyond a “strong and stable” government. This has become Theresa May’s constant mantra, and she often uses the phrase several times in her speeches. When she executed a U-turn over a manifesto pledge over old age care, she was skewered by her opponents. Nevertheless, many Brits continue to see her as a strong leader who can stand up to the EU during the Brexit negotiations that start 11 days after the June 8 election. Her charge that the inexperienced Corbyn would be “alone and naked” in the negotiation chamber in Brussels angered many in the Labour Party, but resonated with those who still doubt Corbyn’s toughness.

But in recent televised debates and speeches, the Labour leader has been impressive with his calm demeanour under pressure. When he was grilled by Jeremy Paxman, widely seen as the Rottweiler of political interviews, Corbyn shrugged off the aggressive questioning by replying calmly and refusing to allow Paxman to get under his skin. In her turn, May did not fare as well. But this kind of interviewing technique prevents a full exploration of policies as Paxman kept interrupting angrily. In fact, many were put off by his rudeness, and have said he should not have come out of retirement to conduct these interviews.

When the BBC held its election debate in Cambridge for all seven party leaders, May refused to attend because she said she wanted to meet the people, whereas Corbyn seemed to want to spend time in the media spotlight. Amber Rudd, the home secretary, was sent to represent the Conservatives. The poor woman was attacked in turn by all the other parties with the exception of Ukip. The audience laughed loudly when she asked voters to judge her party by its record. The debate was chaired skilfully and firmly by the BBC’s Mishal Husain.

The reality is that the Tories have inflicted seven long years of social spending cuts on Britain. The National Health Service is struggling to maintain its services to an ageing population, while the police are thinly stretched, having suffered a loss of around 25,000 cops who were rendered redundant by the Tories. Corbyn has promised to recruit 10,000, and raise funding for the NHS, among other spending increases in the social sector.

To pay for all these proposals, Corbyn says his party will increase taxes on those earning over 80,000 pounds a year, as well as raise corporate taxes. Predictably, this has elicited howls of anger from the well-off with dire warnings of a socialist takeover, especially given Labour’s pledge to re-nationalise the railways and utility services. Day in and day out, the right-wing press keeps hammering away at Corbyn’s perceived flaws, while painting May’s leadership in glowing terms.

But despite the support the Tories enjoy in the media and the business class, it is pensioners that they rely on to stay in power. Eighty per cent of those above sixty turn out to vote, and the majority of them are Conservative supporters. In fact, this category is most likely to own houses they bought decades ago when property prices were low, and have seen their assets appreciate several times in value. Their pensions, too, have been protected by successive governments who do not wish to alienate this cohort.

Once seen as a walkover for the Conservatives, this election has turned into a genuine race, even though Labour is given only an 8pc chance of winning by the bookies, as against 92pc for the Tories. But this may be a good election to lose as whoever is in power will have to lead Britain out of the EU. Despite May’s rhetoric, it is difficult to see anything good in the outcome of these negotiations for Britain. People here forget that the final deal will have to be approved by the parliaments of the 27 members of the Union. Already the most recent economic data shows that the British economy is faltering, with property prices falling while food prices rise.

Against this backdrop, winning the election might well prove to be a poisoned chalice.

irfan.husain@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, June 5th, 2017